1pm Wednesday Update

I am very pressed for time, but here are some thoughts on our upcoming winter weather scenario.

First of all, I think the NAM is likely handling the thermal fields better than the GFS with this system. It often does in wedge-type scenarios. Also, surface temps are running colder right now then most modelling forecast.

the 12z NAM, based on BUFKIT data, shows the following.....

• For Charlotte, snow, possibly mixed with sleet, spreading in during the predawn hours and lasting until mid-late morning. At that point, freezing rain becomes an issue.
  
• For Greensboro, snow arrives by daybreak and continues until early afternoon. At that point, some freezing rain is possible.
• The NAM also prints out about 0.25" of ice for CLT, but I am not sure I buy that exact scenario.

So, at this point I think the Charlotte area will see snow, maybe mixed with sleet at times, arrive during the pre-dawn Thursday. By midday, we will probably be lookign at some freezing rain. I think this area has the possiblity of 1-2" of snow, then possibly a layer of ice on top of that. Travel could become tricky, especially on beidges and overpasses.

For the Triad, I think 1-3" of snow are a good possiblity, with the possibly for some minor icing on top of that. As in the Charlotte, some travel problems could certainly arise.

I will update the blog as I can. And certainly, stay with News 14 Carolina through the winter weather event. We plan on having full weather staffing for live weather hits through the entire storm.