Active Storms Likely This Afternoon and Evening

>> Friday, June 23, 2006

Definitely another hot and steamy day out there. Dewpoints are hanging around in the low 70s and temps are approaching (and should get into) the 90s. Very uncomfortable day.

However, the stage is set for scattered storms to fire as we get deeper into the afternoon hours. We have tremendous amount of low level moisture in place, and it is just a matter of heating the atmosphere up to the necessary temperature (convective temperature) before we see the showers and storms fire.

The upper level winds are still not very strong today, but they are a bit stronger than yesterday. So, I expect most storm motions today to be 5-15mph. Locally heavy rains a tremendous lightning will probably again be a problem.

Tropical Moisture...
As the stationary front remains stalled just to our west, we will begin to have a deep fetch of tropical moisture brought in here on a southeasterly low level flow. This looks to set up a pattern of numerous areas of showers and storms Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and maybe even Wednesday as well. Some copious rainfall amounts could fall during that period, so some flooding issues could arise.

Tropical Depression forming???
The system east of the Bahamas that we have been discussing for days is getting better organized. A recon plane will likely get sent into the system tomorrow. The system has a decent chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 24-48 hours. Lets discuss some of the computer model data for this potential tropical system...

  • The GFS takes the system in the general direction of Florida.
  • The Canadian model generally takes the system toward north Florida or Georgia.
  • The Navy NOGAPS model takes the system toward north Florida of Georgia.
  • And the WRF model appears to take the system to the Georgia or South Carolina coast.
  • The European model takes the system into Florida.
  • The UKMET model takes the system to near Jacksonville.

All in all, almost every model meanders the system somewhere over the southeast for a couple of days after it moves inland. I think this should only enhance our ran and storm chances early next week. Keep checking back for updates....

T-ball update...
T-ball went very well last night. It was a lot of fun, and the kids all did great. Neat experience.


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