Mid-afternoon update....

A tornado watch has been issued for a good chunk of SC up into the Charlotte metro region of NC. The wedge has been successfully eroded away for most of the Piedmont, and the airmass is slowly getting more unstable. Most temps were in the 60s, and so were the dewpoints as of 2-3pm.

The sun is out in parts of GA up into parts of southern SC, and the airmass is rapidly getting more unstable there. Some of that unstable air will get pulled northward in the southerly flow ahead of the system.

The main band of rain and embedded storms will progress through the mountains and emerge into the foothills by early this evening.

Don't let the radar deceive you. The activity will probably not look terribly impressive as it begins to emerge out of the higher elevations. However, as the incoming dynamics interact with the more unstable air in the Piedmont and Upstate, the storms will likely intensify.

Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are the concern this evening into tonight.

Stay with News 14 Carolina on television for all of the latest information. And tonight is a perfect example of every home needing a NOAA weather radio.

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Powerhouse system moving in...

Below is today's edition of the video...



The region will continue to see periods of rain today as a major storm system crawls into the area. The cool conditions we had in place yesterday will give way to a much milder airmass in time today, and most of the Piedmont will be well up into the 60s by later this afternoon. Some spots could even hit 70 degrees or so.

As the airmass gets more unstable, thunderstorms enter the forecast equation. While a few storms could be involved late this afternoon, I think tonight is the main time-frame for storms. This is a classic high shear/ low instability setup, and similar setups in the past have resulted in severe weather. We will have to be vigilant in watching for severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and even a few tornadoes tonight.

This is another case where the possibility exists over severe weather while the bulk of the community is sleeping. Every home should have a NOAA weather radio. If and when severe weather develops, we will be on the air covering it for you, but we can't wake you up through the TV sets. There is a chance this winds up being a non-event, but have a way of hearing watches and warnings in the event they are required.

Quiet and chilly weather resumes tomorrow through the weekend. A 'clipper' system will roll through Sunday and bring some clouds. However, the moisture still looks quite limited, and once again I have left precip out of the weekend forecast. Most high and low temps on a daily basis will be a little below average.

Next week...

Model madness continues for next week, and I still think there is the possibility of a storm system for the Deep South and/or Southeast Tuesday into Wednesday. I think the GFS is unusable for the time being (at least as of the 0z run today)....it over-amplifies things early next week over the eastern US and really crushes the disturbance that would create the storm system. The Canadian and European models both still have the system, and I think they are more correct. But time will tell....

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Dynamic storm system on the way. . .

After some fairly chilly, docile weather Saturday and Sunday, the weather is about to get more active around here. Today, clouds will be on the increase for the Charlotte and Triad zones on up into the mountains, and some drizzle could develop in time. Highs today will largely be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

The core of our next system will swing through later tomorrow and exit very early Wednesday. Rain will be a possibility from time to time tomorrow, with the heaviest rain during the day being the farther west you head....especially in the mountains and foothills. With time, the band of heavier rain will pivot eastward through the rest of the area. This will occur mainly Tuesday night. at that point, a few storms could be involved as well. This is a high shear/ low instability set up, and a few severe storms can't be ruled out, especially as you get closer to I-95.

Flooding will likely be an issue for the mountains and foothills. I fully anticipate some 3-5" rain amounts in those areas. For the I-85 corridor, this is looking like a 1-2" type rain event.

Later this week...

A fresh push of cold air will arrive later Wednesday, and highs will likely struggle to get out of the 40s in some Piedmont spots Thursday into the weekend.

A couple of 'clipper' type systems will move through late this week and then again Sunday. At this point, moisture looks pretty limited, so I don't have any precip chances in the forecast with those.

System next week...

It sure looks like another system will roll through the region Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. This is the one that has been hinted at by the modeling for a while now. That one definitely bears watching for the potential for at least some wintry weather somewhere around the region as a whole. WAY too soon for any type of details....but it has my interest.

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