Back in the Saddle...

After a few days off out of town spending some time with family, I am back home and getting back into the forecasting groove now. It is a rarity for me when I am off to completely step away from keeping up with the weather, but that is what happened this time. I literally had not looked at one forecast map from when I finished my evening shift in the Triad Thursday evening until we got back home yesterday evening. And, for me, it takes a bit of time to get back into the swing of things, forecasting-wise.

However, with all of that said, it sure looks like the ideas laid out here in late December are working out well. If you remember, I had said that the signs of a significant pattern change would likely be evident between the 10th and 15th of January. Well, here we sit on January 10, and it finally feels like winter out there. Here are some items I am looking at for our region.....

• Cold night tonight with lows in the low to mid 20s. I would not be shocked to even see some upper teens on the map tomorrow morning.
• Big warm-up this weekend with highs in the 60s Saturday and probably lower 70s Sunday.
• Showers, and possibly some thunderstorms, roll through Monday as an arctic cold front sags through our region.
• By Monday night and Tuesday, arctic air has taken over the region, and we could wind up being lucky to get out of the 30s Tuesday or Wednesday next week.
• There is a chance we see some sort of wave develop on the arctic front once it is to our south Tuesday or Wednesday. Right now, it is suppression city on most modelling...meaning, most modelling is showing the northern branch of the jet stream crushing the southern stream system that could roll through here. However, that is a known GFS bias, and there have been flashes on other modelling that we could try to get some wintry weather in the Carolinas Tuesday or Wednesday. My gut instinct at this point is that the Tuesday-Wednesday system will likely be too suppressed to give our viewing area significant precip. But, I said that with a word or caution, and things could change.
• I think much of the rest of the month of January, beginning Tuesday of next week, will feature temps trending on the colder side of average. Through yesterday, CLT is an impressive +9.1 in the temp department for the month so far. I think there is a good chance CLT will wind up below average when the month is said and done. That might be a bit extreme, but I certainly think the second half of the month will be MUCH colder than the first half.

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The warmth that we will see tonight through Saturday is really something you don't see too often in early January. Now, let's not get carried away...this is not "freakish warmth" or "unbelievable warmth," but it is certainly well above average. In fact, some spots will be close to record highs tomorrow and Saturday.

Again, let me hit the highlights of the next several days....

• Mild tonight with some mainly light rain spreading in.
• Cold front moves through Friday evening. Ahead of it, look for some showers and storms...severe weather is still a possibility...stay with News 14 Carolina for details.
• Saturday is dry and warm.
• Rain spreads back in Sunday through Sunday night. Some healthy rain totals could occur at that time.
• Colder weather moves in for a good part of next work week. That shot of colder weather should return our temps pretty close to average Monday through Thursday.

Deeper into the month, I continue to like the idea of a pattern change to colder weather over the eastern US. The time-frame is still up in the air, but I definitely think the second half of January will feature some strong intrusions of cold weather.

On another note, the East family is hitting the road Friday to spend some time with family out of state. So, I don't know how much I will be able to post over the next several days, if at all. If not before, I will be able to post again Wednesday when I am back here at work. So, everyone have a great weekend!

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I hope you all are having a great 2007 so far!

Complex weather situation over the next several days...some highlights....

• Much above average temps through the weekend.
• Chance for some showers with the warm-frontal passage Thursday night.
  
• Muggy airmass takes hold Friday....dps up in the 60s.
  
• Cold front moves through Friday night. Showers and storms look like a good bet. It looks to me that severe weather potential will have to be monitored.
  
• Most of the weekend I think we squeeze in most of the weekend dry. However, another storm system will spread more rain in late Sunday through early Monday.
• Cooler air takes hold with highs in the 50s and sub-freezing lows Tuesday and Wednesday.

Out into the longer range, the east Aiso teleconnection continues to indicate the potential for a major eastern US trough between the 12th and 17th. So far, it is not showing up too well on most operational models right now.

It still looks like the AO wants to tank by mid-January. I am not a guy who treats the teleconnection indices like Gospel, but I do think that is a warning shot being fired, and I still like the idea of a colder pattern taking hold for much of the second half of January. The NAO still does not appear to want to go strongly negative within the next two weeks, so I think at least through 15th or possibly 20th, any cold shots will likely be transient in nature. But, I do get the feeling we are beginning to march toward a more sustained period of cold weather for the eastern US, and I still think that pattern will show itself as we head through the second half of the month.

Everyone have a great night. I will be the met for the Triad on the evening shift Thursday. See you then!

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