Back in the Saddle...

>> Wednesday, January 10, 2007

After a few days off out of town spending some time with family, I am back home and getting back into the forecasting groove now. It is a rarity for me when I am off to completely step away from keeping up with the weather, but that is what happened this time. I literally had not looked at one forecast map from when I finished my evening shift in the Triad Thursday evening until we got back home yesterday evening. And, for me, it takes a bit of time to get back into the swing of things, forecasting-wise.

However, with all of that said, it sure looks like the ideas laid out here in late December are working out well. If you remember, I had said that the signs of a significant pattern change would likely be evident between the 10th and 15th of January. Well, here we sit on January 10, and it finally feels like winter out there. Here are some items I am looking at for our region.....

  • Cold night tonight with lows in the low to mid 20s. I would not be shocked to even see some upper teens on the map tomorrow morning.
  • Big warm-up this weekend with highs in the 60s Saturday and probably lower 70s Sunday.
  • Showers, and possibly some thunderstorms, roll through Monday as an arctic cold front sags through our region.
  • By Monday night and Tuesday, arctic air has taken over the region, and we could wind up being lucky to get out of the 30s Tuesday or Wednesday next week.
  • There is a chance we see some sort of wave develop on the arctic front once it is to our south Tuesday or Wednesday. Right now, it is suppression city on most modelling...meaning, most modelling is showing the northern branch of the jet stream crushing the southern stream system that could roll through here. However, that is a known GFS bias, and there have been flashes on other modelling that we could try to get some wintry weather in the Carolinas Tuesday or Wednesday. My gut instinct at this point is that the Tuesday-Wednesday system will likely be too suppressed to give our viewing area significant precip. But, I said that with a word or caution, and things could change.
  • I think much of the rest of the month of January, beginning Tuesday of next week, will feature temps trending on the colder side of average. Through yesterday, CLT is an impressive +9.1 in the temp department for the month so far. I think there is a good chance CLT will wind up below average when the month is said and done. That might be a bit extreme, but I certainly think the second half of the month will be MUCH colder than the first half.

Thanks for stopping by and reading....


Anonymous 6:13 PM  

Hi Matthew,
Enjoy reading your blog.
What happened to Jeff's blog - it seems to be non-working.

Looking forward to a wave to form along the front next Tues/Wed to bring some excitement to the area.

Matthew East 6:26 PM  

Jeff knows about the problem with his blog....he will try to get it back up ASAP.

Yeah, I sure hope we can see some wintry weather. At the moment, I am not overly optomistic about it being something significant, but I will make a full post about that a bit later this evening....

Anonymous 7:15 PM  

Hi Matthew I also enjoy reading your blog .I have
2 questions for you can you please answer them? My first question is how accurate is GFS 1% to 100%and my 2nd question is the GFS still showing up any hope for winter weather on Tuesday night?

  © Blogger templates Shiny by 2008

Back to TOP