Friday Evening

>> Friday, January 12, 2007

Anchoring the weather for the Triad again this evening. WIll handle both Charlotte and the Triad tomorrow evening, then Charlotte only for Sunday.

Here are some things on my mind regarding the weather...

  • Very warm weekend ahead with highs and lows around 20 degrees above average!
  • All of the while, a big ice and snow storm is occurring over the Plains states. Oklahoma City has been in the 20s all day with occasional freezing rain. As I am typing this, the temp at OKC is 23 with a north wind sustained at 21mph.....
  • Wow...that is about all you can about the tremendous cold over the Plains states. As I am typing this, there are lots of temps between -10 and -20 over parts of North Dakota nad Minnesota. Brrr....
  • Arctic front will push through the Carolinas later Monday or Monday night. It looks like our best shot at rain showers will occur Monday night or Tuesday.
  • The computer modelling has really under-estimated both the movement of the front today as well as just how cold the air behind the front actually is. Will definitely keep that in the back of my head for next week.
  • Don't miss will be quite cold next week from Tuesday onward. I still expect most highs in the 30s Wednesday and Thursday, and some upper teens appear possible for lows Thursday or Friday morning.
  • What about wintry weather? It is interesting to note the Canadian model throws a lot of precip in here Wednesday of next week. But, at this point, that model is sort of an outlier with that scenario. But, I still think we have a shot at some overrunning precip sometime Tuesday night through Thursday morning. I doubt it is anything major in terms of wintry weather, but it is certainly something I will keep a close eye on. The computer models will likely not be able to resolve what exactly will happen around here next week until Sunday or Monday at the earliest, so trust no model this weekend.
Thanks to everyone for reading and for your great questions. Keep them coming, and I will be happy to answer.


Anonymous 7:34 PM  

Wow! Middle of the country getting hammered with ice. Reminds me of our 2002 snow storm here, though looks like they may have it worse. Saw some NWS discussions talking about an inch or more of ice! Not friendly to trees. Looks like it could be a historic ice storm in the making.

Would rather have our current weather any day over that.

Matthew, you mentioned BUFKIT in your last blog. Could you explain that a little, with the links you talked about? Only if you have time. Thanks.

Keep up the good work!

Matthew East 10:07 PM  

Yeah, definitely the potential for more than an inch of ice accumulation before all is said and done in Oklahoma. That is crippling stuff!

BUFKIT is a software program developed by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo. It is a program to display and analyze forecasting soundings for specific locations from several different computer models (NAM, GFS, etc...). I highly recommend the program. It is free, and it is a very useful tool. You can go to the link below to read more about BUFKIT and download if if you want to.

If you do download BUFKIT, here is a good site to download the model data from the NWS in Raleigh.

Hope this helps....

Anonymous 9:43 AM  

Thanks Matthew! Will have to check those out!

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