Snow potential and brutal cold on the way....

>> Wednesday, January 04, 2017

Above is the video. Really challenging forecast still regarding snow potential. Frankly, there is way more disagreement between the various computer models than I would like to see at this range. A few differences I'm looking at:

* RPM and Canadian model are much quicker with the arrival of precip than most models.

* GFS remains further south with the system.

* European model generally the furthest north and strongest with the system.

* Individual ensemble members of GFS and European are generally boom or bust... either big snows or weak and next to nothing.

* GFS snow footprint has been trending slowly northward over the last several runs. Not big adjustments, but they are there. See below:

It is still too early in the game for me to mention specific accumulation ideas, but here's the idea from me at this point:

I think the European solution is about as far north as this can go, and I think there's a decent chance the GFS continues to slowly adjust north.

However, the weakening seen in the latest UKMET model (see video) gives me some pause, and there is still a chance this could wind up trending weaker, as some of those ensemble members I mentioned indicate.

If you want a decent system, the overall key is keeping this piece of energy rolling through the southern Plains as independent and intense as possible .


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