Sunday morning...

>> Sunday, February 19, 2012

After looking over the data this morning, there are a couple of factors that remain a challenge with the forecast today and this evening.

First of all, warm ground temps. While I think sometimes this gets overplayed in terms of limiting accumulations of snow, you have to account for at least a bit of melting or time consumed to begin accumulations with initial warm ground conditions. While I don't think it's a huge factor, it is somewhat of a factor.

Secondly, the amount and intensity of precipitation. There will likely be some banding that sets up in the precip later this afternoon and evening, and in the spots that find themselves under a localized heavy band, some significantly higher amounts of snow could occur.

As of 9am, the radar upstream looks good, and the incoming upper level disturbance is doing its job.

After looking over some sounding data, for the Triad and Triangle, it looks like a change from rain to snow could occur around late afternoon with any lingering rain possibly kicking over to snow around the southern Piedmont this evening.

You can see my accumulation map. Anybody across the southern Piedmont could be fair game to get a little snow on the ground, but it is just as likely that you will not have any accumulation in this area.

Further norther, I have included much of the Triad and Triangle areas in the 1-3" area, but the closer you get to the Virginia border, the more the totals could really ramp up. For the northern part of the Triad viewing area, I am going with a 3-6" accumulation.

Be aware that there could certainly be some higher amounts, especially in the 1-3" area, if we get some nice banding features to set up.

Up in the mountains, this is a good snow event. I am outlining a large 6-10" area, but I fully expect there to be some 12"+ amounts in a few mountain spots.

Travel in the snow accumulation areas could definitely be a challenge in the morning.


jtomlinwx 9:23 AM  

Hey Matthew, any ideas on when we'll change over in Alexander, West Iredell area? I hate to ask you for such a specific location, but I was just wondering! Thanks for all you do!

Matthew East 9:38 AM  

Tough call... possibly mid-late afternoon?

Anonymous 9:57 AM  

IS has akready changed over to sleet here in northern Person County MAtt just thought i would let you know...Chris

Matthew East 10:09 AM  


Anonymous 11:30 AM  

Some wet snowflakes mixing in with rain in Winston over towards Rural Hall area....

Anonymous 1:02 PM  

Hey Mathew,

Do you think that Guilford County Schools will close due to weather tomorrow?

Matthew East 1:20 PM  

Thanks.... don't know about schools. Just trying to figure out the forecast at this point!

  © Blogger templates Shiny by 2008

Back to TOP