Active pattern this week...

>> Monday, February 13, 2012

Whew. What a cold weekend! And it was indeed a decent snow event for the mountains.

As we head into the new work week, there is a lot to talk about. See the video for the graphics to go along with this discussion. Three system to discuss....let's take them one at a time....

System 1:

This one is bringing some snow as far south today as the Tennessee Valley and northeast Texas. As the precip moves into our region, a combination of the upper level disturbance weakening and the very dry air in place will chew up a lot of the precip. However, there could be enough snow flakes or sleet pellets to whiten the ground in some spots of northeast Georgia, the western tip of SC, the western mountains of NC, and southeastern TN.

For the foothills, piedmont, and upstate, there is the chance that a few snow flakes and/ or sleet pellets will work their way through tomorrow morning. However, I just don't think there will be enough precip to amount to anything significant. Some lingering areas of light rain or rain showers will then be possible later tomorrow.

System 2:

This one will be a rain-producer, and it will swing through mainly Thursday.

System 3:

Interesting. With the 0z runs, the Canadian and European model were quite similar with having a surface low near JAX Saturday evening. The 0z GFS was suppressed well south.

However, the 6z GFS has come around and is not advertising a low pressure track very similar to the 0z Canadian and European.

This one will be interesting to watch. I don't like that there isn't really any overly cold air around, but there is enough there that if this takes just the right track, it could produce some wintry precip somewhere in the region.

However, if the upper level energy dampens out (like is happening with system 1), we wind up with little precip. (This is less likely with system 3 due to there not being another disturbance digging behind it though.) Also, if the system amps up too much, warm air floods into much of the region bringing only rain.

Now is not the time for any excitement at all. Threading of the needle will have to take place. But for snow fans, at least there is something there in the 5-6 day range.


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