Weekend thoughts...

A few quick thoughts on the 12z model data....a lot of this will be shop talk.....keep that in mind. See the bottom for the bottom line.

12z Euro looked oh so close to a bombing phase around 108, but the phase was not terribly strong I think primarily due the orientation of the Great Lakes disturbance.

12z GFS still looks off to me, like the 6z. The entire orientation of the flow pattern at 500mb is different than most other modeling. It might score the coup though...who knows.

12z Canadian is nice for a chunk of NC. Pretty nice phasing, and because of that, a nice pulling sothward of the colder air aloft.

12z UKMET is weaker and farther south.

Here is what to take from this IMO. I see no trend in the modeling. What I see is each time a model is run, you get its latest interpretation of how a very chaotic 500mb pattern will look this weekend. There is no trend north or south....there is just varying positions and strengths of features.

For the upper Southeast to see a nice winter storm, we want some good phasing. Each model has taken turns showing this from time to time. That is needed to pull the colder air necessary for snow southward, and also get the precip rates heavy enough to overcome some marginal low level temps in some places.

Players remain on the field, and I am no more encouraged or discouraged than I was at this point yesterday. We are just going to have continue to get a handle on how each of the features involved unfolds over the next couple of days.