Milder for the system on the horizon...

>> Friday, January 14, 2011

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. I talk about the next week's worth of weather, and why the GFS is likely wrong next week.

What a frigid start to our Friday. Most Piedmont spots were in the teens, and many mountains spots were in the single digits. In fact, several spots in north Alabama were in the single digits. Brutal!

Temps will moderate over the coming weekend with Piedmont highs in the 40s....maybe even around 50 in some spots Sunday.

System next week...

In today's video, I showed you why I thought the 0z run of the GFS was way wrong with its handling of things next week. The 6z has stepped in the direction of the Euro and Canadian with much more emphasis on the coastal system, and a colder CAD scenario.

The bottom line here is that at least a brief period of wintry precip is possible in the favored CAD areas, especially the foothills. It seems to be that the quicker precip gets into the region, the higher the chances will be for any wintry precip.

The Euro quickly changes almost everybody over to rain as it blasts the low up the coastal plain. At this point, it doesn't look like a huge problem with wintry precip, but often times the trend is colder in CAD scenarios, so we will see.

And, don't look now, but there are signs of another system around 9-10 days from now.

The basic idea is the same general pattern looks to continue for the foreseeable future.


Anonymous 9:18 AM  

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't this system trended east with almost every run? Not the GFS obviously, but could this thing turn into a wintry event if we get the system far enough East? Also, do you have a link to the Euro charts you use in your videos? Thanks

Anonymous 10:43 AM  

Matt, some signs of the warm-up at the end of the month. I have a feeling, once this winter flips to warm we are cooked (pun intended). Would you agree?

Also, we've really gotten ripped off twice now in Winston for a 6+ snowstorm. In both of the bigger storms we got less than our full potential. No question here, just griping :0

- Chuck

Matthew East 1:32 PM  

Most of the modeling had seemed to shift the emphasis more to the coastal as opposed to the one in the Ohio Valley. Looks like the 12z Euro has plenty of damming, but still not a lot of moisture before temps warm. The images are from a pay site....

Chuck...the pattern will inevitably flip, but I see no concrete signs of it yet.

I hear you.....but it definitely been a fun pattern overall.

Anonymous 1:46 PM  

I'd have to beg to differ Chuck, I think Charlotte has been ripped off twice. We got 3 slop inches on Christmas that didn't even accumulate on the streets, then Sunday we got 4 inches (3.5 IMBY in a two hour span). Both systems had potential to be whammies but totally underperformed for the metro. At least the triad got a significant snow on Christmas.

I won't complain too much since these minor events are heck of a lot more fun than 05-09. Hardly any snow at all here those years.

Just want to break that cap and get a good 6 incher in CLT. I'm thinking it may have to be next year because eventually this pendulum has got to swing the warm way.


Anonymous 3:25 PM  

DID YOU SEE THE CRIPPLING ICE STORM ON THE 12Z EURO!?!?!?!? THAT'S CRAZY!!! and even more scary is it's the EURO not the GFS sooo it actually could happen!

Anonymous 7:25 PM  

Hallejuah and alll models inclusing the NO GAPS model indicating snwo around here next Wednesday and when you say favored CAd areas is Perosn county in luded int hat ad Guilford and Forsyth becuase everytime we are COLd RDU is warm becuase they just outside teh CAD? CHris

Chris Enloe 10:22 PM  

Actually not many models show any snow Wednesday at all. The GGEM and NOGAPS do show a coating to an inch of snow on the back end. But not likely. Remember models are just a guidance and should always be taken with a grain of salt.

Regarding favorable CAD, Forsyth county may be favorable depending on how strong the High Pressure is, and how strong the CAD is. In this case, nowhere under 1000 feet is likely to see any wintry precipitation.

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