Really impressive cold....
>> Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video....give it a look.
This blast of arctic air is very impressive. Highs today will be at least 20 degrees below normal again across most of the region, and many Piedmont spots will again fail to reach freezing. In fact, the Triad region will likely not make it out of the 20s. All of this will full sunshine today.
Lows tonight will again be in the teens. So keep those faucets dripping and the outside pipes wrapped.
Next system...
The NAM (one of the shorter-range models) continues to bounce around where the heaviest axis of precip will be with the next system late Wednesday night through Thursday. This lowers my confidence.
As it stands now, I will still mention a light wintry mix being possible across the Piedmont from very early Thursday morning until late morning or midday....any precip after that would try to fall in the form of light rain or drizzle in many places.
Will this be a huge deal? Probably not. But wherever that axis of heavier precip does impact, some accumulation is possible. Where is still the question.
Weekend system?
The potential for a storm system around Saturday is still very much on the table. However, the models continue to show a high degree of variability in their handling of this system. The GFS is still the most impressive with it while the Euro is still a little out to sea and weaker.
If the GFS is correct, parts of the region could see a rain changing to snow scenario Saturday and Saturday night. But I am far from confident at this point.
31 comments:
Via Twitter - @NCDOT NCDOT preparing for the possibility of snow, ice across the state. Brining of roads 2 begin in areas expected to be most affected.
Matthew, Jeff mentioned that he thinks that the Saturday/sunday snow storm is looking better. Is the Euro turning around towards the GFS? Just wondering.
I noticed it as well in the NAM. It did have the axis of moisture being cutting through KY and Southern OH if I'm correct. Then that trended down toward East TN/Western NC. Now it's looking to have backed away from that.
In regard to the weekend system, the models could be, as usual, not able to handle it well because of the next system taking shape before it. I'm thinking that once we get this next one out of the way, we'll have a better feel of the situation later Thursday. So at least we still have a storm being predicted and a shot of some wintry precipitation, which I like seeing.
The GFS just ran the westest run for this weekend storm. For the zip code (27107), the GFS is predicting 12.3" of snow through sunday eveneing. This is looking pretty trendly through the models. The Euro wants to jump on board, but hasnt as of yet.
Regarding this storm on Wednesday night/Thursday: My prediction is going to be 2-3" of snow, and maybe a trace of ice. The models are showing that this may change over to rain thursday evening, or maybe it won't at all. This has gotten me really excited. Maybe we can get Thursday off of school, and next Monday and Tuesday!
Charlotte hasn't been robbed yet. I got this nagging feeling that Thursday will be bust. I still have some excitement for Saturday/Sunday.
Bust is looking very likely for Thursday. *POOF* as Jeff would say.
Triad looking for double chances of winter action! Again!
Yeah, I'm not feeling the love for Thursday or this weekend. Thursday seems like a non-event and Sunday seems like a healthy rain; just too warm. Again, cold and dry or warm and wet. Take your pick. Ones of these days we'll get a storm to make up for all this torture in Charlotte...I just don't think it'll be this year though.
Brad
If you guys are talking about the Charlotte area, I think you guys are right. But if you guys are talking about the Triad, i think those statements are totally wrong. All of the models shows witner precip Thursday, and heavy winter precip Saturday into Sunday.
No actually most models show rain for Charlotte and the Triad area. And Saturday is wayyy to far off to even start talking locations. If somne of the modeling is to be believed all of NC could possibly see snow. Get your facts together Chris. Don't favor your area because you live there.
Thanks,
Chris, I was talking about the Charlotte area. I don't really care what the Triad gets.
12z run had the cutoff line at I-40, never good for Charlotte.
Thank you Double J! It's annoying when people "wishcast" for there areas only. Thursday could still turn into something if the system is stronger then currently advertised. As Jeff says... we will see.
As far as I'm concerned the Triad can have their ice storm on Thursday, I'd just assume avoid the ice.
don't know what happens after this point, but at 96 hours the baroclinic zone is in a perfect area for western NC. a slp track along that line would mostly likely be snow in many places NW of Charlotte.
Yeah, the "Gotcha" concept as he says could happen, just got to wait and see.
It could be a repeat of last December 19's Mid-Atlantic bomb, that slammed the Triad!
Met Matthew East just said at American this is close to being a big time storm for NC this weekend
As far as I am concered, things could still change. Lets see what models say TONIGHT and tomorrow morning. K. Thanks!
Look, everyone cares most about their own backyard, but it doesn't make other locations irrelevant. Matthew has a pretty broad audience that he caters to on here, so there are going to be people on here from the Triad, the Triangle, the Charlotte Metro, the foothills, the mountains, the coastal plain. We don't have to denigrate one area over another.
I think there are definitely chances for winter weather on both Thursday and this weekend, but nothing is set in stone. Let's just enjoy the ride, guys!
jonathan,
i like your post ! very cordial and realistic, way to go !! : )
The problem is Charlotte misses out on almost everything. The Triad gets a lot of action. For me anyway, that is why I tend to worry about Charlotte and not so much about the rest of the area. I know Matthew East has a large are to be concerned, and does a good job forecasting as such.
The Euro is very close to giving most of North Carolina and southern Virginia a big time winter storm..... not saying that is what will happen but it's much closer than the NAM or GFS. Usually the Euro is the one dashing our hopes so hopefully it will be the one that brings us hope this time around
Anon-Is that for the Thursday, or the Saturday/Sunday storm?
Some of the members of the 12z GFS Ensembles is showing a very nice snow event for the Charlotte region for the weekend storm. One of those members (p002), paints decent QPF over the area as the system continues to strengthen some while heading up and along the NC coast throughout the day Sunday. Not holding out on just that model run alone, but it's nice to look at and who knows. It MIGHT be on to something, again, no guarantees that other model solutions will follow.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zf108.html (Go from hr. 108-132)
I agree with Anon about the 12z Euro's solution. We come close to getting smacked with a decent snow event across the area. Could it be a trend? It can, and I like that it's closer to that solution than GFS or NAM. We'll see later today and definitely once this midweek system's gone.
That's good news Killer, thanks.
Charlotte rules. Everywhere else drools.
Just kidding!!
I read something recently that I agree with, climatology will win out 98% of the time; meaning ask yourself what usually happens? That's what I have to come to terms with. What does Charlotte get in December (or whenever for the last 8 years)? Rain or nothing. There's always the 2% but what do I think REALLY is going to happen? That helps me not get my hopes up.
Brad
Hey guys....thanks for checking in and commenting. Been a little busy today, but I might put up a quick post in a second.
I appreciate all of you reading and wondering what is going on, and I understand wanting snow in your own back yard....hey, I do too! Let's just keep everything cordial.
I will try and describe my thoughts for the various geographical regions as always.
Thanks a bunch for reading!
If I'm honest, I really do hope the Triad gets spared a major ice storm, those are no fun. Tell you the truth, I really don't want ice, so missing out on Thursday is not a big deal. I hope we see snow on Saturday Night/Sunday though.
Brad-At least we got a dusting this December, lol. That is more than normal.
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