New Year's Eve....

>> Friday, December 31, 2010

A big storm system is wrapping up in the middle of the country this morning. Heavy snow is flying in Nebraska and a tornado watch is up from NE Oklahoma to Missouri.

Heavy snow will spread through the High Plains into the upper Midwest today into tonight. At the same time, a pretty significant severe weather risk will ramp up through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

For the Carolinas, this will be one of the nicer days this month with a good bit of sunshine and Piedmont highs into the 50s. Enjoy!

For any New Year's Eve plans you might have this evening, the weather will present no problems for you with come increasing clouds and temps settling into and through the 40s.

Not the prettiest of Near Year's Days tomorrow.....morning drizzle and some showers rolling in by the afternoon. The cold front will move relatively slowly through the region, some some light rain could even linger into Sunday morning.

Next week....

The weather looks pretty benign for at least the first few days of next work week. Highs and lows look to be at least relatively close to average, and it looks like the precip, at least into mid-week, will stay to our south and west.

I am still keenly eying the potential for a system around January 8, or Saturday week. Really, the overall players on the field look very similar to what we were tracking and watching for last week leading up to the Christmas storm system.

At this point, it very well looks like we are going to be watching for the interaction between a southern branch piece of energy and a northern branch piece of energy (phasing). The 0z European model phased those two streams just in the nick of time to provide a good snowstorm for north GA, E TN, and much of the Carolinas into Virginia. The GFS was close at 0z but way off with the 6z run. The 0z Canadian held the energy back in the SW much longer.

Below are two panels from the 0z Euro....notice on the first image in the upper-right panel, the southern piece of energy and the northern piece are interacting. The result 24 hours later (the second image) is a fully-phased, low pressure bomb going off just east of the Outer Banks.

This is far from anything to be excited about yet, but I remain in the corner of what I have had out here. The next time-frame to watch for potential fun and games is around January 8.


Anonymous 7:30 AM  

Hey maybe some more fun (snow) great, I just got done with my 15 day outlook and it seems to me after that possible next system around the 8th things could slowly get back to a mild pattern for at least the South but also more zonal flows where the rule over all in the ensemble means of GFS and GGEM but with uncertainty the rule that far we'll see.

Anonymous 9:34 AM  

What was the set up for the February 2004 event for Charlotte? Was it a +PNA/-NAO Miller A double phase? Did we depend on perfect phasing timing for that? To my memory it was more of an overrunning event by a strong LOW to our south; I don't remember a phasing discussion. That's the event I want to duplicate!! Just curious. Thanks.


DoubleJ 12:27 PM  

Accuweather actually has NE Charlotte (28269) has two chances for snow. One on the 8th, which Matthew East has talked about, and another chance on the 14th. If nothing else, that indicates to me the cooler air sticking around with Matthew's ideas of at least the first half of the month.

Anonymous 7:05 PM  

As for Accuweather, I use there Pro site (pay site) but I dont look much at their 15 day forecast cause thats mostly based off the GFS past 10 days as the GFS is about the only model that goes out that far so dont put much faith into Accuweather past say 5-7 days,


DoubleJ 10:57 PM  

Yeah, I don't put any faith in the models that go out that far. Things always change here in Charlotte, it never fails. I do think Matthew East's ideas about the cooler staying longer are valid though, maybe not the whole month, but at least through the first half.

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