Sunday Evening...

>> Sunday, January 20, 2008

A quick postmortem on the storm system yesterday.

Looking back at the forecast I put out leading up to the system on Friday, there is no way around it. The accumulation forecast was a bust for the Charlotte and Triangle regions. However, the accumulation ideas I put out for the Triad itself and the foothills were pretty good.

Let's talk about the accumulation bust for the Charlotte region. It will all be a little clearer when the NWS releases their case study of the event. However, I had the right idea about the precipitation getting in here. The problem looks like it was with temperatures aloft. If memory serves from morning sounding data, the temperatures between about 3000 and 5000 feet above the surface were roughly a degree higher than expected. Because of that, it took longer to switch over from rain to snow than I was anticipating. And because of the ground becoming very wet, there was really no real chance of significant snow accumulation (unless we had a period of heavy snow) with temperatures remaining above freezing. So, due to the slightly warmer temps aloft, and therefore longer period of rain, for most spots around 7 hours or snow went for naught, in terms of accumulations.

Why was the temperature aloft a bit warmer than anticipated? Good question. I suspect it has to do with the mountains slowing the progress of the colder temperatures aloft moving in from the west.

So, we get up, dust ourselves off, and move forward.

Dangerously cold tonight with lows in the 10-15 degree range. Some communities could dip into the upper single digits!

I am keeping an eye on Tuesday morning. Moisture will gather ahead of an approaching cold front, and with low temps in the 20s Tuesday morning, if the rain begins early enough in the morning, it will be some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Now, this is not a major weather event. However, it doesn't take much freezing rai nto cause some slick roads. So, it is something to watch.

As I opined last night, looks like our Thursday system will stay way to the south. Next weekend's forecast is complicated, but at this time, I am not excited about any wintry weather possibilities.


Anonymous 8:54 PM  

Do you know of any good, significant looking snow chances in the long range forecast? If so What time frame?

Matthew East 10:03 AM  

I haven't ventured much past the next seven days, but as of yet, no. However I will say the overall pattern remains exciting for a couple of more weeks.

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