>> Sunday, October 21, 2007

Well, the computer models continue to flip-flop with their handling over the big trough now over the Rockies. Let me give you an example. Below will be a frame from the 12z GFS, the 12z European, and the 12z Canadian model runs today. The valid time is 8am Wednesday morning...

The GFS, which for several runs in a row had developed the closed upper air low in the Lower Mississippi Valley, decided on its 12z run today to develop the low MUCH farther west. So, instead of a couple of days of soaking rains, we end up with a primarily dry forecast this week.

While a flip in a run of the GFS normally wouldn't concern me, it does this time. The 12z run lines up very well with its ensembles from 12z as well, and that is concerning for our rain chances.

On the other hand, the 12z European has remain virtually unchanged from its previous runs with the closed upper air low again over the Lower Mississippi Valley, and therefore some nice rains for the Carolinas. The 12z Canadian is also in the Lower Mississippi Valley camp.

With this evening's forecast package, I have kept periods of rain in the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. I am not big with flip-flopping my forecasts, and since this is the idea I have been going with, I will stay the course for now. But just keep in mind that unfortunately, the forecast might have to be amended.

By the way, next weekend looks dry with temperatures close to average for the time of year.


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