>> Thursday, September 28, 2006

Quick post about our severe weather chances through this evening. Very strong winds aloft with the approaching storm system. Below are the 500mb and 300mb charts valid at 8pm tonight from the 12z NAM.

The winds at 500mb easily exceed 50 knots this evening, and any storm with a strong enough updraft to reach that layer can tap those winds and bring them down to the surface.

Factors in favor of some severe weather through this evening....

  • Negatively tiled trough
  • Looks like NC is close to if not in the right rear entrance region of a 300mb jet streak
  • Temps have warmed into the lower 80s in many spots
A factor against severe weather chances this go-around are relatively low dewpoints. Dewpoints remain in the 50s this afternoon....while that is moist enough for some severe weather, generally you need dewpoints in the 60s to get the really serious stuff.

So, all in all, I certainly think some damaging winds are possible this evening. I can't completely rule out the risk for an isolated tornado or some small hail, but winds definitely look to be the main severe weather threat. Flash flooding does not look to be a problem due to the fast-moving nature of the storm system.

A pretty nasty storm fired over Burke county this afternoon, but there have been no reports of damage with it. There have been some storm reports come in from eastern Tennessee.

Stay with News 14 Carolina for all of the latest information. We will walk with you through the storms if/when the occur.


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