Tropical Thoughts...

>> Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Most modelling has at least somewhat consistently shown some sort of tropical development in the southern or eastern Gulf of Mexico for a few days now...some modelling as long a a week or so ago.

I am a bit constrained by time, but here are some thoughs as of mid-afternoon Wednesday. I do think some sort of tropical system or low will form around the Yucatan Channel or southern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. That system should get picked up by a trough digging toward the eastern U.S. and turn the system northeastward. Some modelling, most recently the 12z Canadian and 0z GFS, have brought the system up toward the Florida panhandle and then up into the central or western Carolinas. Most other modelling has carried the system off of the coast.

At this point, I am leaning toward the eastern solutions. If the system did carry up off of the Carolina coast, then we would see little to no rain from that system here in the Piedmont. However, if the western solutions are correct, then we could be in for a soaker this weekend. If you have beach plans this weekend, at this point I would say expect some rain and breezy conditions later Saturday and Sunday.

The prospect of this becoming a major tropical system are low, but I do think this has a chance to possibly organize into a named system.

Lots of folks in the Southeast are in serious need of some rainfall, and there is no way everyone will get some needed rainfall out of this. However, this system does have the potential to deliver some much-needed rainfall to parts of the region.


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