12z European
>> Wednesday, February 07, 2007
After taking an initial look at the latest European model run, it is farther north with the track of the surface low for Tuesday than any of its previous 5 runs. Due to that fact, it prints out very little snow for NC, but it does appear to indicate ice potential for western NC.
However, like I have been saying, paying a lot of attention to details this far out is rather pointless. Remember, the two things I said in the previous post to look for in this time-frame from a storm system.....trends and overall set-up.
We can determine better when tonight's 0z Euro run comes out whether that model is indeed trending north, or it just had an inconsistent run with the new 12z. As far as overal set-up is concerned, it holds the surface high way back in Canada and never really pushes it into good CAD position during the storm. That is a big reason for the differences in the 12z run today and the previous 5 runs.
So, continue to sit back and relax while the models try to get a grasp on the situation. Today's model data certainly hasn't been good news for snow lovers in the Carolinas, but take a deep breath and relax. Lots of changes occur with potential systems in this time-frame. We could very well wind up with 35 degrees and an inch of rain from this, or it could still wind up being a big winter storm. Stay tuned...
3 comments:
Matt,
Why would the National Weather Service mention that it is getting late in the season for an ice storm? That would be for the mon/tue storm next week. Also with that position of the H, wouldn't that help bring more could in?
Ron Kuhn with the NWS when it was in CLT taught me years ago that high pressure needs to be near Chicago for snow in CLT...strong NW flow of cold air is the ticket.
If the high slips east, we get a NE wind which warms over the atlantic waters, warms aloft, and CAD results.
High too far up in Canada and we miss the connection of cold air.
And if that's not enough, the track of the low must be right. Too far inland and the warm core of the gulf moisture takes over. Too far off shore and the precip is light if at all. Low moving across the gulf coast across to Savannah, GA is just about right with a deepening area of low pressure, high pressure around the Great Lakes, and we're talking snow baby.
For those ingredients to come together all at the right time to produce a big snow is rare...which is why he said a heavy snow is rarely seen in these parts.
Keep the faith, big snows usually hit in late Feb and early March as the southern jet gets active and all we need is for a good punch of cold NW air.
Alm....I think the NWS was just trying to convey that ice storms get more rare this time of year on. While ice storms nay be fewer in number in late February than in January, they can certainly still occur.
And yeah, it is certainly a fine line to walk to get everything to line up correctly for big Carolina snows. I have had my fair share of snow disappointments having been in the south all of my life. But, I will keep my fingers crossed...maybe we can get a nice snow before the season is out...
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