Soaking rains return...

A deep fetch of tropical moisture is getting pulled into the region today, and that process will continue through tonight. The result will be waves of rain that progress through the region from south to north. A few storms could become involved tonight, and I can't rule out the chance of a brief spin-up tornado, mainly in eastern North Carolina.

Rainfall amounts will be generous in many areas. Pinpointing the exact amounts and where exactly the heaviest rain amounts will occur is tricky, but generally speaking, I will say anybody from the I-77 corridor east to the coast is fair game for 1-4" of rain with some spots possibly seeing more.

Today will also be cool with the clouds and rain with most highs in the Piedmont and Foothills only in the mid to upper 60s.

The system pulls away tomorrow, and as that occurs, I will maintain the chance of some showers.

Friday will feature sunshine and highs in the upper 70s to near 80, then a significant push of cool air arrives for the weekend.

Highs Saturday will likely struggle to reach the lower 70s despite a sunny sky. Highs Sunday through Tuesday will then likely only be in the 60s.

I will bring back in rain chances Monday through Wednesday, and if that does pan out, temps Monday and Tuesday could be even cooler than indicated in the formal forecast.

TD 16...

The depression remains disorganized, but there is some chance this could become a tropical storm prior to becoming a non-tropical low pressure area tomorrow. The exact center locations of this one is rather insignificant....large areas of rain and breezy conditions will surround the system for hundreds of miles.

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Drying out today....tropical rains arrive tomorrow...

Sunday and Monday were indeed wet periods across the entire region. For the Piedmont, many spots received a nice 2-4" of rain during that 48 hour stretch. The rain amounts really ramped up as you head eastward though. Wilmington was absolutely slammed with rain....totals in that area approached 11 inches!

The upper air low that pulled all of the rain in there is rapidly lifting northeastward away from our area. On the south side of the system, drier air is working in, and that will result in a good deal of sun today with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

The weather will then sharply change again. Unsettled weather in the western Caribbean Sea (which might get classified as a tropical system) will get picked up by another strong upper level system diving our way, and the result will be tropical rains spreading into the region tomorrow, tomorrow night, and into Thursday morning.

Rainfall amounts are tricky with this one. There will likely be a pretty sharp gradient in the rainfall totals from west to east, and again, I fully expect the Coastal Plain to get hammered with big rain totals. The rain totals for the Piedmont amongst the various computer models rain from less than an inch to over 4 inches or more....it all depends on exactly how the slug of tropical moisture moves through the region.

Once that system departs later Thursday, cool, dry weather will try to settle in for the weekend. In fact, Piedmont spots could very well see some upper 60s for highs and some 40s for lows by early next week!

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Wet Monday...

The wet pattern will persist today across the region, and some generous amounts of rain look quite possible. Through the event thus far, some convection near the Gulf coast has cut down on the rainfall totals a bit, and that might continue. However, still looks like a wet day for sure.

There is some risk of severe weather as the day unfolds. Once west of the Coastal Plain, the airmass is stable this morning. However, some of that instability will likely edge westward into parts of the interior Carolinas today. As some dynamics get involved, some storms could produce an isolated tornado or two as well as damaging winds.

We have definitely made a large-scale pattern change. For the next couple of weeks, the upper air pattern will try to settle into an eastern North America trough more often than not.

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