Wednesday afternoon....

New video is cut and posted below. I have been able to review only some of the 12z data so far. I think the 12z GFS is again garbage with its track so far off the coast of the Sunday-Monday system. Interested to see the new Euro run in an hour or so....I think it is on to the right ideas with its 0z run.

My thinking with this system is that this is beginning to have the look of a rain-producing system that ends with a bit of snow in parts of the Piedmont and Foothills. However, don't hold me to that until we get within 72 hours or so of the event. All options are still on the table.

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Wednesday morning...

I am putting together the forecast packages now.....but I wanted to note that I think the 0z GFS is garbage with the Sunday-Monday system. The Euro looks much more correct, and the 6z GFS is trending that way. The 12z runs today will be interesting.

Taken verbatim, the Carolinas, outside of the mountains, will have some temperature issues if you are looking for snow. But, one thing at a time...let's let the models finish figuring out that there will be a storm, then we can get on with the details...

I will have a video posted sometime later today...check back for that and more information in another post....

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Note to snow fans....

Don't let your hopes and disappointments ebb and flow with each run of each model. This is another case where the models will not have a good idea of what will happen with the Sunday system until Thursday or Friday, so any one specific model run, at this point, is not a reason for celebration or disappointment.

What you watch for in this time-frame is TRENDS in the modeling, and frankly, to this point there hasn't been one. I am curious to see the latest European model run to see if it has any consistency with its 0z run last night.

At this point, I do think we will have a storm system affect the Carolinas Sunday into Monday. I don't think the models that are showing no system at all are correct. But, we could wind up in the 50s with rain or we could end up with snow flurries....or anything in between.

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