Quick Tuesday morning hit...

Some quick notes...

1. 0z and 6z GFS runs have stuck to the idea of snow in the western Carolinas with the Sunday-Monday system. In fact, the 0z GFS indicated a prolonged light to moderate precip event.
2. The 0z European has come around to a solution somewhat similar to the GFS, indicating some snow potential for the western Carolinas. The 12z Euro run yesterday was completely lost with no storm at all.
3. The Canadian continues to show a much farther west track, giving the Carolinas all rain.

If you are looking for snow, I would be concerned that the dreaded "northwest trend" will develop in the modeling as we get closer to the event. But, if we can keep the track of the low pressure somewhat suppressed, like recent GFS runs have shown, the western Carolinas could be in good shape. Time will tell.....

I should also mention a few storms could occur tonight into tomorrow morning, and I think severe weather might be a problem in some spots early Friday. Active times ahead...

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Morning European

Well, I take a sit down at my desk this morning, pull up the overnight computer model runs, and what do I see? The GFS continues to flip around with a very suppressed solution for Sunday-Monday's system. But what got my attention was the 0z European model shifting its low track much farther to the south than yesterday's runs....to a track far enough south that western North Carolina would likely see some snow taken verbatim.

The models will undoubtedly shift their track between now and then, but it remains something that has my attention.

In the mean time, we have a couple of rain chances between now and then, so that is great news....

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Sunday Evening....

I was off yesterday to celebrate Grace's, my middle daughter, 3rd birthday. It is amazing how quickly time flies. Family was in town and came over, and we had a good time. My oldest daughter is next in the East family birthday parade, and she has put in the request for a Chuck E. Cheese birthday party. But we have a few months to get ready for that one...

On the weather front, quite mild for the next few days. Some lower 70s will occur in spots Monday and Tuesday. Enjoy! We don't get January days like this too often.

The storm track will shift southward by mid-week, and we will have several storm system roll through during the second half of the week. The first will bring some shower chances Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...maybe a few storms as well. The second system will bring some rain chances Thursday. Then a third system will probably impact the Carolinas around Sunday.

There have been some interesting model runs with the Sunday system...at times indicating some wintry precip potential. The 12z GFS Sunday showed some nice snow amounts in the Piedmont as a low pressure tracks from the Gulf into the western Atlantic. The European model is just a little different....tracking a low into the Ohio Valley!

If you are hoping for wintry weather (and believe me, I would love to see it), I would feel much better if the European was indicating the southern solution. I have a sinking feeling this might be another case where we see the GFS adjust the track northwest with time as we approach the event.

So, at the moment, wintry weather is probably a long shot, but at least it is something to watch.

Have a great week!

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