Debby thoughts....

>> Saturday, June 23, 2012

Invest 96 L will likely get classified as Tropical Storm Debby this afternoon. Where the system will eventually head is ..... well... uncertain is about as good as it gets.

Check out the latest spaghetti plots.....yikes. See some explanation below....

In terms of a few specific models, the new Euro model remains consistent with a track eventually into Texas. The GFS continues to shoot Debby across Florida. The Canadian is heading right up the Lower Mississippi Valley.

The differences aloft in the Euro and GFS models are fairly subtle, but there is slightly more ridging on top of the system from the Plains states on the Euro than the GFS, and that keeps the system suppressed far enough south that the trough swinging into the eastern US misses picking up Debby.

Which of these model camps is correct should be more evident by this time tomorrow.

All interests along the Gulf coast, from Texas to Florida, need to monitor the progress of Debby.


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