Scattered storms today...watching the tropics...

>> Friday, August 19, 2011

Scattered storms are in the forecast today as a disturbance approaches from the northwest. A few storms could be severe this afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 or so.

Still some chance of at least a few afternoon storms over the weekend with most highs in the lower 90s.


Please see today's edition of the video, embedded above. Lots of good graphics and information to go along with today's discussion.

TD 8 has formed in the Caribbean Sea and will head into Central America.

There are two tropical waves well out in the Atlantic, and both could become classified systems. At this point, I think odds favor the wave that has recently emerged off of Africa re-curving into the Atlantic.

However, the wave in the central Atlantic might be a different story. Still tons of question with this one...the first one being 'will it develop?' I think it likely will, but it still might take it a few more days.

After that, in terms of intensity, you have to see what the overall atmospheric environment will be around the system in the future. Then, you have to consider land interaction, especially Hispaniola.

Finally, in terms of track, the big player down the road will be a trough swinging into the eastern US. The big question will be does this trough pick it up and pull it north, meaning a possible Atlantic coast landfall. Or, does the trough largely miss it, which could mean a Gulf of Mexico landfall.

Way too soon to tell. Again, please see the video for lots of good graphics and information to go along with this discussion.


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