Forecast Model Comparison

>> Thursday, December 09, 2010

Model Comparison: Some details are beginning to surface. One of those is a strengthening trend with the upper-level energy as the tilt of that energy pivots... the more the tilt is to the RIGHT, the better the chances of the cold air cooperating with the precipitation. I have drawn a "black line" to mark the tilt and it bisects the center at "X" or "N" of the upper-level energy responsible for producing precipitation and bringing in the cold air. The maps show corresponding upper-level energy and precip (same timeframe).

Also, as Matt has pointed out many times, when a cold snap presents itself... it's important show the increase in US snow-cover. That increase is obvious since November 19th.

Reason for posting the map bbove is to emphasize next week's cold snap. The arctic air in the forecast for next week will travel over a vast amount of snow cover. A considerable area of 4-8" currently exists in the upper midwest and 4-8" also exists in Western NC. Most of that snow has been produced by this latest cold snap. More snow will also fall from the low pressure system headed toward the Great Lakes on Saturday. Numbers will come crashing down. December standards (averages) won't be touched and records may fall next week.


Anonymous 6:44 PM  

Notice the no snow for Charlotte!!

Anonymous 7:28 AM  

Morning folks..... No snow for Charlotte. I highly doubt we will even see one flake. It's VERY unlikley.

Anonymous 11:04 AM  

who is this fool?

Anonymous 11:14 AM  

I don't know.... but I think they are pretty much correct. Unfortunately.

Anonymous 11:38 AM  

Thanks other anon! It's nice to know that I am not the only one in reality. I don't get why some people still think its going to snow. It boggles my mind. LOL.

Anonymous 11:45 AM  

U must be new to this blog, cuz round here were optimistic so u need to just go ahead and leave

Anonymous 1:01 PM  

Not happening. Grow up.

Anonymous 6:10 PM  

All of you really need to relax. I mean really? Acting like you are 8. It's alright going to be optimistic and its alight to be a realist. Now as far as weather goes, I really don' think any of us will even see a flurry. Its just not happening this time.

DoubleJ 6:53 PM  

Being a realist is fine, and probably smart. Trying to rub people's faces in it that want to have hope is childish. Just look at your posts, "Notice the no snow for Charlotte!! "Morning Folks... No snow for Charlotte." What is that? Its provoking that is what it is.

Anonymous 9:08 PM  

thank you doubleJ! I'm fine with you having your opinion be different from the hopeful, but don't be a jerk about it in your posts

Anonymous 8:11 PM  

Snow in Kannapolis. There's some sleet mixing in. Light dusting as of 8:00 pm and it's still falling.


Tyler Legg 9:42 PM  

Yep. Light dusting here in Kannapolis. Still snowing. Nice little surprise!

Jeremy 11:34 PM  

Been snowing in Rockingham County for 3 hours. Roof is white, yard turning white. Friends in south Charlotte say it's been snowing there.

DoubleJ 11:40 PM  

I think it snowed just out of spite to Anon. At anyrate, nice little dusting for Charlotte, very cool surprise.

Anonymous 11:51 PM  

There are still a few flakes falling at my house in Kannapolis. It's been snowing here for four hours. It was definitely a pleasant little surprise. I think Anon just received a lesson in Carolina meteorology - anything can happen.


Andy Wood 1:33 AM  

hey guys! been forecasting over here in Greenville for Western North Carolina and have been VERY busy and think I had everything about right with 6-12+" ... glad you guys got a flizzard (flurries with 35mph wind) :)

East will ber back to update you guys shortly :)

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