Still hot and dry....Earl getting closer to the coast...

>> Wednesday, September 01, 2010

Highs surged into the mid 90s across the region yesterday, and more of the same is on tap today. Again today, we will see plentiful sunshine and very low humidity levels.

Earl will approach the Outer Banks tomorrow but will have little impact here in the Piedmont. Winds will be slightly higher, but still less than 20mph, and we will remain rain-free. It will still be pretty hot tomorrow as well with highs in the low to mid 90s.

We will have one more hot day Friday before big changes occur. Highs Friday will be in the mid 90s with lots of sun.

Labor Day weekend...

A big-time switch to cooler air will arrive for the weekend. Saturday through Monday will feature highs in the 80s and a sunny sky. Low temps will drop into the 50s for most Piedmont locations Sunday and Monday morning! I fully anticipate some 40s up in the the higher mountain spots.

Temps will rebound next week with some 90s for highs at least briefly returning Tuesday and Wednesday.


Earl weakened a bit overnight and is a Category 3 hurricane with 125mph sustained winds as of this morning. The upper level pattern around Earl will actually improve a bit today, so odds are Earl will at least hold its general intensity for the next 24 to 36 hours.

The general track ideas remain unchanged. The actual center of Earl will likely remain just east of the Outer Banks as it races northward Thursday night into Friday morning. However, it will likely be close enough for some rain and wind (with winds likely to hurricane intensity at times) in the Outer Banks.

I expect waves to be a big problem with some 15 foot to maybe even 20 foot seas possible. Obviously, rip currents will be a huge issue. Beach erosion will likely be a significant issue in some spots as well.

Any rain in the outer Banks will end by later Friday, and the seas will improve Friday as well. However, rip currents will remain a problem through the Labor Day weekend.


Fiona is a little improved in structure this morning, and the distance between Fiona and Earl is increasing. So, at this point, I doubt Fiona gets absorbed by Earl. If Fiona can survive the next several days, it might wind up getting trapped beneath a ridge and be an issue for somebody in the US down the road.

Don't look now, but there is another tropical wave east of Fiona that might eventually become Gaston.


Anonymous 5:31 AM  

Yeah i far as i can see with the models and nao and pna aswell the heat will be off and on looks like through most of this month.

Nic- Good to have you back Matthew hope all was well on your time off.

Matthew East 6:07 AM  

Thanks Nic! Had a great time. Yeah, looking a bit like Fall with some back and forth temps...

Anonymous 9:36 AM  

Thank you for doing such a great job keeping us all informed on the tropical weather. We don't get this much information during our 6 or 11pm newscast due to limitation on time. I wonder if Fiona or Gaston will end up coming towards US... not that I want it to come here, but just curiosity sake wonder if situation will allow for that to happen?


Anonymous 7:54 PM  

Hey Matthew i tried adding you on facebook but was unable to find add to friends link.


Matthew East 5:17 AM  

TY....still too many variables in play for any real confidence in Fiona or Gaston...Gaston probably winds up being the more significant system. Facebook like page is linked right on the right side of the blog.

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