Matthew and a major weather change...

HPC 5-day QPF map above.


No new video today, but a quick discussion.....

Tropical Storm Matthew (who is near and dear to my heart) is in the western Caribbean Sea this morning. Matthew will be battling various land interactions with central America over the next few days, and that will be the main determining factor in the short term regarding Matthew's intensity.

Generally speaking, Matthew will head west-northwest before the steering currents break down near the Yucatan Peninsula. From that point on, a great deal of uncertainty exists as to where Matthew will head. At this point, the long-term scenario that a lot of modeling is indicating is that Matthew will begin to lift north or northeast toward the Florida Peninsula and then possible riding up very close to the East Coast from north Florida up through the Carolinas.

However, let me stress that at this point, I have very little confidence in any one model solution, and it is simply too soon to tell where Matthew will head in the longer term.

Big changes on the doorstep....

For our region, a cold front will approach later tomorrow, and there will be some chance of some showers and storms later in the day. Then, it sure looks like a couple of wet days are on the way Sunday and Monday.

A cold air damming scenario will unfold. We will have a cool, northeasterly flow in place at the surface, and lots of moisture will get lifted up and over that wedge. As it appears now, it looks like a lot of the deeper moisture will pull away by Tuesday.

Sunday and Monday will be much cooler with 70s for a lot of highs....maybe even some Piedmont spots not making it out of the 60s! Rainfall amounts should be fairly generous...maybe widespread 1-3." The heavier amounts will likely end up in the mountains and foothills.

The forecast later in the week will largely depend on the eventual track of Matthew. If a track near the coast takes place, much of the interior Carolinas would be on the dry side of the system with a cool and dry forecast late in the week. A farther west track would lead to more rain. We will see....