Cool and quiet system night before Christmas

>> Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Today will again feature lots of sunshine with highs in the 40s. Melting will continue today in the areas with snow left on the ground, and again tonight, some re-freezing will occur in those areas with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

Clouds will increase tomorrow ahead of our next system. That storm system will be a major, disruptive system in a lot of places tomorrow through Christmas Day. Blizzard conditions will occur from the Plains into the Great Lakes, and some strong storms are possible in the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Around our area, we will see precip move in by Thursday night and continue through a good bit of Christmas Day. We will have a cold air damming scenario set itself up later Thursday, and the airmass could very well be cold enough for a period of freezing rain early Christmas morning, mainly in the northwest Piedmont and Foothills. Typically, models underestimate the cold air with cold air damming scenarios, and there is even more potential for that this time around due to the extensive snow pack over the eastern US. At the moment, I don't think it is a huge problem, but we will keep an eye on it.

The rest of Christmas weekend looks cool and quiet, but the pattern remains loaded with potential next week. The first system of interest will roll through Tuesday into Wednesday next week....

Here is a nice shot this morning from Beech Mountain.


jtomlinwx 7:34 AM  

Do you think West of Statesville could see freezing rain(we still have about 3 inches of snow on the ground :]) or just the triad? I absolutely love looking at your blog, I'm on Christmas vacation and still wake up at 7 just for this :) so please continue to do them!
Thanks and God Bless You and your family!

Matthew East 7:55 AM  

I appreciate you reading!

It is a possibility for your area. I am hoping any freezing rain will be brief in nature, but it bears watching. This thing might trend warmer and it not be a problem, but a warming trend is not what usually happens in the modeling with CAD events.

God bless you and your family as well....I will continue to crank them out!

Anonymous 10:23 AM  

Thanks Matt. Just wanted to let you know I'm still here and still listening! Thanks for keeping us up to date on the long range.

Of the 2 systems coming; next week and the January time frame one....which do you think is more favorable for winter weather in Charlotte in regard to the teleconnectics? Greenland block, -NAO, Strong Arctic air, etc. Thanks.


Michael 11:48 AM  

Thanks for the excellent work Matt. Looking long range it looks very promising for snow events in the W-S area according to Joe Bastardi in the next 2 weeks or so. Would you think he is on the right track or do you see it playing out differently (I do realize it is really early). God Bless you and let's all remember that "Jesus is the reason for the season" and to him goes all the glory.haelJ

Anonymous 9:44 PM  

Hi Matthew,
Just want to drop a line to say Merry Christmas to you and your family... we look forward to the first storm of the new year to dump some snow to the Charlotte metro area.

God bless,

Matthew East 5:53 AM  

Brad, it is tough to key on any one system. The overall pattern looks to remain favorable for a while, so any potential system bears watching.

Absolutely Michael. God bless you as well. The overall pattern looks terrific for the next few weeks, but we have to have the timing of things line up correctly.

TY, Merry Christmas to you and yours and God bless....

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