Monday Evening...

Fay is close to the SW coast of Florida. Sure looks like this has a chance of going inland near Naples, or possible a little north of there.

From there, the big question is becoming can this get back over the Atlantic? This is an idea I have been kicking around in these blog posts for several days, and it seems to be gaining traction.

Like I mentioned in a previous post, if Fay gets back out over the Atlantic, the waters are very warm, and some significant strengthening is possible. And all indications to me are that if Fay does get back over the Atlantic, the upper air pattern will dictate it getting push again back westward into Georgia or the Carolinas.

So again, I will stress that if you are heading to the Carolina coast, you need to pay very close attention to Fay. Without a doubt it is going to be a very wet week along the coast, but I am concerned about the possibility of this having some teeth to it as well.

For the Piedmont, I am discouraged in terms of our soaking rain potential. I think it is likely we will see at least SOME rain from the system, but not nearly as much as we would have seen had the system moved up to our west. I notice the HPC 5-day precipitation forecast has a large area of 25" of rain just off the Southeast coast....can't recall ever seeing 25" on that map before. This will be a slow-mover, and it is going to put down a lot of rain...it just looks like a lot of that might be in the ocean.