Fay Thoughts...

Fay is one tough nut to crack tonight, for various reasons. First of all, it is still quite difficult to determine exactly where the center is. If is over eastern Hispaniola, but the specific location is tough to pin down. The last recon plane reported some conflicting signals in the wind field as to the exact center location.

Secondly, wherever the center currently is, it will be interacting with land in some fashion though the weekend as it moves through Hispaniola and at least brushes with Cuba. Those land interactions are tricky....they can cause the center to wobble, bounce around, and even re-form.

There has been a definitive westward shift in all modeling today, and most models now take Fay into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Most tracks take the system into Florida, either the Gulf side of the Peninsula or the Panhandle. The western-most outlier is the NOGAPS which takes the system toward New Orleans. The NAM has been the eastern-most outlier, still keeping the system on the Atlantic side of Florida.

My original idea was that this would scrape up the Atlantic coast of Florida and make a run up the coast from there, possibly toward the Carolinas. This is certainly looking less likely now, but I am not ready to completely abandon that idea.

At this point, I am leaving all options on the table....eventual landfall could be anywhere from the Atlantic coast of Florida all of the way to the central Gulf coast. It will be a tell-tale sign for this system when it emerges from Hispaniola....if it is heading north of Cuba, the Atlantic options are still on the table, if it heads south of Cuba, Gulf it is.

As far as intensity is concerned, I think the overall upper air pattern will be favorable for strengthening. The obvious problem is land interaction....but once the system clears land for any period of time, fairly rapid strengthening is possible. If this winds up hitting south Florida, then the time for strengthening would be limited....however, if it were to head to the central Gulf coast, then that would be lots of time for it to get its act together.

Any way you look at it, I think the odds of the Carolinas picking up some beneficial rains have increased today....that would be fantastic news. This would be later next work week.

To wind this long post down, really as many question as there are answers at this point. Keep checking the blog...I will keep things up to date as the weekend unfolds. Notice on the right some goof Fay info....including the NHC RSS feed on the system. Below is the 18z HWRK model....scary run for Florida.