Ice problems tomorrow night??

I am in the forecast chair for the midday shift in the Charlotte and Triad markets today. As is always the case with winter weather events around here, this is a tough forecast. However, after reviewing the morning data, some thoughts....

For the Charlotte region....
Could see a little light rain or some sleet pellets tomorrow afternoon, but most of the precip will hold off until tomorrow night. Portions of the viewing area will then see a period of freezing rain before kicking over to all rain Friday morning. In terms of ice accumulations, the chances for accumulation will get better the farther north you go in the viewing area up toward I-40. There could be some slick travel spots for the Friday morning commute.

For the Triad region....
This is looking like a more significant event for this area as opposed to the Charlotte region. Precip could begin as some sort of sleet/snow mixture tomorrow evening, but I think rather quickly we are looking at mainly freezing rain. Temperatues then struggle to climb above freezing Friday. In terms of ice accumulations, I do think the potential for some ice accumulation is rather high. How much accumulation is impossible to say right now, but the Friday morning commute could be rather difficult, and I won't rule out the possibility of some power outages.

This is a fluid situation, and this forecast will probably have to be adjusted as we approach the event. Lots of variables are in play, such as how heavy the precip will be and how cold and dry the airmass will be at the surface and aloft. A degree difference at any level of the atmosphere will make a big difference in this forecast.

We will get a better idea of the specifics of this event tomorrow. Stay tuned....