Rain and storm chances set to ramp up...

We have an area of low pressure in the Gulf, a warm front in SC, and an approaching upper level trough on the board today that will all play a part in our weather in coming days.

Scattered showers and storms will be possible today, but then the chance of showers and storms really increases for tomorrow as that warm front lifts northward. Then for Thursday night and Friday, the upper level trough will pick up that Gulf low and lift it northeastward. Depending on how the specifics of these features unfold, parts of the region could wind up with a healthy shield of rain during this time period.

See the video for more.... some modeling is printing out some very impressive rain amounts.

Here's the video:

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Drier air tries to work in from the north....

Drier air is seeping into parts of the region from the north today, and the result will be lower humidity and a dry forecast for some....especially along and north of I-40. South of I-40, the changes will be more subtle, and I think we need to maintain at least a small chance of some showers and storms.

The big weather player later this week will be the low pressure (formerly Barbara in the eastern Pacific) in the Gulf of Mexico. This will likely not become a classified tropical system, but it will lift up to near the Carolina coast by Friday.

For the mountains, foothills, and piedmont, it will mean rain and storm chances ramping up from later Thursday through Friday. For the coast, it could mean some quite breezy conditions by Thursday and Friday along with some rain and storms.

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Cold front working our way....

It has been an extremely rough weather week in many locations in the Plains and Midwest. Today will again be active with a 'moderate' risk of severe weather focused in parts of Oklahoma and a large 'slight' risk surrounding that.

Around the Carolinas, another warm and quiet day. Some of the high-res modeling is pushing the idea of a few isolated showers this afternoon, but I still expect most spots to be dry. Same storm for Saturday.

The cold front will finally approach the region Sunday, some some showers and storms will work into the western Carolinas by Sunday afternoon and evening. And it still looks like Monday will feature very good shower and storm chances as the front moves through.

I am keeping an eye on the potential for a little Gulf of Mexico tropical mischief for later next week too. See the video for much more...

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