Hot weather to round out the work week....

Well above average temps will continue across the region through the end of the work week. Highs today will be in the lower 90s for most, and then look for low to mid 90s tomorrow and Friday.

I will continue to mention a very limited chance of a few isolated showers or storms late this afternoon and early this evening, but most spots will remain dry. I anticipate a mostly sunny sky tomorrow and Friday.

Big weather changes...

A major pattern shift will begin to unfold this weekend. Saturday still looks mainly dry and hot, but Saturday night and Sunday will feature the chance of some showers and storms. Highs Sunday will be much cooler...likely lower 80 at most for the Piedmont.

A big upper air low will set up shop just to our west early next week, and that will put us on the unsettled side of the system. That is good news...we need the rain. As it stands now, the weather Monday through Wednesday is looking unsettled and much cooler. I have good chances of showers and storms on those days and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Tropics...

Tropical Storm Lisa is way out on the other side of the Atlantic. A very slow movement to the west-northwest is likely with the system.

While it doesn't look terribly impressive this morning, there is a good likelihood that a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea will eventually become Matthew. Almost every computer model eventually draws this system northward and winds up making this system a threat to the US by the beginning of October. Plenty of time to watch it.

Read more...

Changes ahead....eventually.....

The warm and dry weather will continue through the remainder of the work week with highs well above the seasonal averages. In fact, many spots through Friday, and maybe even Saturday, will remain at least 10 degrees above average for high temps.

However, my confidence is much higher today in the timing of a significant pattern chance. Those weather changes begin this weekend.

A strong cold front will approach later Saturday, and that front does look to bring the chance of some showers and storms, especially Saturday night into Sunday.

That front will be propelled southward by a significant trough that will carve itself out across the eastern US. If that does indeed occur, and I am more confident today that it will, then we will wind up with highs at or even a bit below normal by early next work week.

Tropics...

Igor is becoming a non-tropical low pressure area today as it races through the north Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Lisa has developed in the eastern Atlantic. It looks to rather slowly meander around the eastern Atlantic Ocean through the week.

I continue to see good signs that another tropical system will likely develop in the Caribbean Sea later in the week. If that does occur, it could wind up being a potential problem for the US way down the road.

Read more...

ZZzzzzz......

Before I delve into the weather, let me just share what a putrid football weekend that was for me. My Bulldogs went down to Baton Rouge and came out of there with a sound defeat. 5 turnovers. Odd thing is, MSU outdid LSU in almost every major statistical category.....except turnovers. You are simply not going to win, really at any level of football, with 5 turnovers.

Then there is the Panthers. Ugh. My wife is a Bucs fan, and we really enjoy poking fun at each other on Panthers-Bucs gameday. Yesterday didn't turn out to well.....



On to the weather. As the title of this post indicates, the weather is such that it sort of puts you to sleep. Simply put, there is just nothing in the way of major storm systems headed our way. Highs each afternoon will continue to be well above September averages all week long...in fact, most days will feature highs in the lower 90s.

The drought conditions continue to worsen across the region. And once again, I have no formal rain chance in the entire seven day outlook.

Long term....

There continue to be come signs of a pattern chance in the 7-10 day range that might lead to some cooler temps....but nothing to really hang your hat on yet.

Tropics...

Igor lashed Bermuda for much of the weekend, but the island will see improvement today as Igor continues to pull away.

Julia continues to fall apart as it heads east way out in the Atlantic.

Most of the modeling is indicating some sort of tropical development will try to occur in the western Caribbean Sea late this week. If that does occur, that would likely be something to watch for US landfall implications down the road.

Read more...