Warming trend continues....

After 70s for highs yesterday, most of us will wind up in the 80s today with abundant sunshine. Humidity levels will remain on the low side as well.

Big thunderstorms will erupt today along and just ahead of a slowly advancing cold front. The highest severe weather probabilities today will be in the Mississippi Valley and the Ozarks. That front will eventually move through here....likely on Monday.

Over the weekend, it will get much muggier around the Carolinas as a broad southwesterly flow brings in Gulf of Mexico moisture. Due to the increase in moisture, I will maintain the risk of a few isolated showers or storms on Saturday and Sunday afternoon. However, the chance of rain each weekend day in any one locations is quite small. Highs this weekend will warm into the mid to upper 80s.

So, for the big Quail Hollow Championship, I can't rule out an isolated shower or storm drifting near the course over the weekend, but I don't anticipate any long-term delays.

As the previously-mentioned cold front moves in Monday, I do anticipate widespread showers and storms, and a few showers and storms could linger into Tuesday as well.

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Robert's post.....

If you are heading out to Quail Hollow this week the weather looks almost ideal through Saturday. As I will be heading out there Tomorrow morning, I look forward to 80s, sunshine, and following Freddie Couples. Late afternoon showers and thunderstorms Saturday with a better chance of some delays on the final day Sunday. Will see if Padriag can turn it around and if Tiger can handle the public gallery.

I will shift my focus to the Gulf of Mexico where last weeks platform explosion and has led to a pretty extensive oil leak. The BP owned oil platform “ Deep-water Horizon” which exploded and sank last week is currently spewing around 5,000 barrels a day, a number quite higher than previously thought. The Platform is located about 50 miles off the Louisianan coast neighboring with what biologist call the “Fertile Crescent” of the Gulf of Mexico. The past few day winds had shifted from the north and the oil slick was being pushed away from the coast. However, Today will bring about strong Southeasterly winds that will remain for a few days, adding to fears of a coastal environmental disaster.

The coast guard had planned to light the oil slick yesterday evening to increase chances of collecting the oil from the spill. After combustion and burning of the oil, the residue left behind is a thicker tar like substance that is easier for collecting with netting. If the oil spill continues to go unstopped it has the potential of affecting the fertile crescent of marine and terrestrial based wildlife. This is substantially worsened by the timing since many organism are in the peak of their mating season.

Weather wise the burning of the oil slick will lead to an increase of sulfate base aerosols in the lower stratosphere which can affect cloud growth and development as well as an increase in acidic rain fall.

We should expect the political theater around off shore drilling to increase in the next few weeks after this spill coincides with Obama's recent interest in increased offshore drilling. It should also be noted that currently BP is responsible for footing the bill with the recovery and handling of this oil spill with of course the help of the US Coast guard and other government agencies.

Robert Elvington

robert.elvington@gmail.com

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Gulf Oil Issues....

For those of you that have been following the story, you know that an oil rig explosion in the northern Gulf of Mexico has caused and is causing some major environmental problems. And the problems unfortunately might only get worse for a while.

All efforts are being made to contain this spill and get rid of it, but it is far from an easy task, and serious environmental consequences might occur.

I spoke to my buddy Hank Allen, a meteorologist at WGNO-TV in New Orleans, LA. Here is a quick email he shared with me about the issue.

"Basically strong southeast flow the next couple of days and then southerly (will drive the oil slick closer to the coast). The issue with the burning is the lesser of 2 evils. They think it's better to have the air pollution than the water and coastal issues. The problem comes in that even once they burn it off there is still going to be some left over. You're still going to have a tar like substance. I'm fairly confident some of this will make it to the coast. Right now they are setting up booms to try to corral it as best as possible. A special shrimp season has been opened to allow the harvest of as many shrimp as possible before the oil gets into the area. However the oyster beds could be in trouble and of course all the wildlife areas could be affected depending on how much gets in there. Plus you have the wetland restoration efforts that will obviously be hindered."

I have Robert Elvington writing a piece on this today that I will have posted later in the day....stay tuned....

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