Some severe weather likely...
>> Tuesday, May 10, 2011
While the atmosphere is currently 'capped' across much of that region, the cap will break later this afternoon, and I expect scattered storms to fire and extend through the evening. We will likely initially see some supercell thunderstorms with a very large hail threat and the potential for some gusty winds, and then as time unfolds, outflow boundaries/ cold pools will try to drive the storms into lines, and damaging winds will probably take over as the biggest threat.
Below is the RPM valid at 8pm.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQG5lMewNSSJtwSOeZzBoglliJbGIg0WbTZUi7KL8d-IvCjEnAq3vDDW5Cw5KEkUs-oQTeP91HbGwNYsE1eeR5DmYhLUI2ytBfkNtcIGRWuzqzgIU2DDWCEyTz_nhyphenhyphenQphocmcQ/s320/mgWeb_WRF_20110510-150000_ASE_ECONUS_F00090000_PwinterThickness_R4km.png)
And here are the wind and hail probabilities from the SPC.
Hail:
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOkjov6ZWmlmiT-TFWJa28IFxN7rgsQo6Q_4HuR_1k8XG-nE84z1rkllu7cDKi69c1oWdB2ckGMUybH2DFjzkKJUIvphcmYPH1f6Ae760OE9mXEAgPzt5-iiPzhkFIWBj95klS/s320/day1probotlk_1630_hail.gif)
Wind:![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5OdSGOb7XaiPueKmjWs1w4GpwF0onKhYvWBASAHGhD2OgGk9aSt6WosNNDVziwXEX8GdZWdVGRPd6JmaKt3RGjTQ8w7IT_hKL2PqvqEbSmbKwRSUHTTkF2-xiUg3U26ohB-OW/s320/day1probotlk_1630_wind.gif)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5OdSGOb7XaiPueKmjWs1w4GpwF0onKhYvWBASAHGhD2OgGk9aSt6WosNNDVziwXEX8GdZWdVGRPd6JmaKt3RGjTQ8w7IT_hKL2PqvqEbSmbKwRSUHTTkF2-xiUg3U26ohB-OW/s320/day1probotlk_1630_wind.gif)
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