Nice weekend ahead....February thoughts...

Here's today's video. In it, I look at our weekend weather, our next system next week, and some thoughts on a potential February pattern change.



A cold front is zipping east through the region this morning, and that front will rather quickly sweep out any remaining showers. Mild, breezy conditions will unfold today with highs in the 60s for most.

A nice weekend is on tap with highs tomorrow in the upper 50s and lower 60s with lots of sun and then low to maybe mid 50s Sunday with sunshine.

Monday will be the chilliest of the upcoming days with highs shy of 50 in many spots despite a sunny sky.

Next week...

Timing questions remain, but at the moment, the models favor Thursday as the most likely time-frame for our next rain-maker to move through.

February...

Still nothing I am ready to bet the farm on, but I do see some signs on the longer-range modeling of a change in the overall pattern in North America as we progress into February. See the video for the graphics demonstrating this.

With the 0z runs today, both the GFS and the European model show signs of developing a tall PNA ridge....in other words, a big ridge up the west coast all of the way into Alaska. This would be a significant change from what has occurred the majority of winter thus far.

Now, various models have shown something like this at times this winter, only for it not to verify. But, to my memory, this is the first time I have seen such good agreement on this general idea between both the European and the GFS model, so the idea might have some credence.

Like I said, I am not all in yet. However, if that idea is correct, it would definitely favor a colder pattern in the eastern and even central US.

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Next system approaching...

Here is today's edition of the video....



Our next storm system is approaching the region today. We will have a good amount of clouds ahead of the system, and a few showers are possible this afternoon.

However, most of the shower activity with this system will occur tonight in the Carolinas. There has been a marked decrease in the rain amounts on most modeling, so it looks like our rain totals could wind up below 0.50" in many spots, and maybe below 0.25" for many.

Severe weather is a concern today across a good chunk of Mississippi, Alabama, southeast Louisiana, the western Florida Panhandle, and into western Georgia by this evening. However, this is not the same type animal compared to the system late Sunday into Monday morning, so I do not expect nearly the level of severe weather that occurred with that system.

The showers should exit our region early in the day tomorrow, and then we will be set up for a dry weekend with temperatures a bit cooler. Overall, the weather this weekend will cooperate nicely for any outdoor plans you have, unlike last weekend.

Nothing really exciting brewing in the longer range, and I am still on the fence as to how the February pattern will unfold.

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Quiet and fairly mild today....next system already taking shape...

Here is today's edition of the video....in it, I look at our next system, the weekend forecast, and a look into next week.....



An area of low pressure over Texas is really cranking the rain this morning from Texas into Oklahoma into the Ozarks. Flash flooding was a problem overnight in a number of spots in Texas.

For the Carolinas, we will have an increase in the clouds this afternoon as that low pressure crawls in our direction. Highs today will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s for most.

Tomorrow, look for a mainly overcast sky as the low pressure nears. By tomorrow afternoon, some showers are possible, but the lion's share of the rain in our region will occur tomorrow night into Friday.

Severe weather will be a potential problem today in Texas and Louisiana with the threat shifting tomorrow into southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi and Alabama. Our region could wind up with a few thunderstorms by Friday morning, but the severe weather prospects are low.

There is the chance of a secondary low developing as the system pulls through Friday. If that occurs, the rain could stick around for much of Friday as opposed to moving out earlier in the day. This would also up the rain totals around the region.

Interesting to note the Canadian model generates a little snow across portions of the region Saturday night into Sunday morning, and some other modeling has tried to do that at times as well. I think it's unlikely at this point (outside of the mountains), and I have not included it in my forecast.

Take a look at the video for some thoughts on next week.

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