Scattered storms today...watching the tropics...

Scattered storms are in the forecast today as a disturbance approaches from the northwest. A few storms could be severe this afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 or so.

Still some chance of at least a few afternoon storms over the weekend with most highs in the lower 90s.

Tropics...

Please see today's edition of the video, embedded above. Lots of good graphics and information to go along with today's discussion.

TD 8 has formed in the Caribbean Sea and will head into Central America.

There are two tropical waves well out in the Atlantic, and both could become classified systems. At this point, I think odds favor the wave that has recently emerged off of Africa re-curving into the Atlantic.

However, the wave in the central Atlantic might be a different story. Still tons of question with this one...the first one being 'will it develop?' I think it likely will, but it still might take it a few more days.

After that, in terms of intensity, you have to see what the overall atmospheric environment will be around the system in the future. Then, you have to consider land interaction, especially Hispaniola.

Finally, in terms of track, the big player down the road will be a trough swinging into the eastern US. The big question will be does this trough pick it up and pull it north, meaning a possible Atlantic coast landfall. Or, does the trough largely miss it, which could mean a Gulf of Mexico landfall.

Way too soon to tell. Again, please see the video for lots of good graphics and information to go along with this discussion.

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A few PM storms...watching the tropics...

A weak cold front is approaching the region, and that will help to kick off a few afternoon storms on a daily basis through the weekend. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s over the next few days.

Another cold front will move through Monday. Look for some storms with the front, then a slight cool-down by mid-week next week.

The forecast beyond mid-week depends on the tropics....

Tropics...

The tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea continues to slowly organize, and it could get classified today or tomorrow prior to moving into Central America.

Of greater US interest is the tropical wave still well out into the Atlantic. It is looking slightly healthier this morning, but it still has a ways to go before it would be healthy enough to get classified. However, almsot every single computer models does indeed develop this system, and they are almost unanimous in showing the potential for a Southeast US landfall later next week.

See the video for some graphics to go along with this.

At this point, I need to see this system organize a great deal before I get terribly concerned. There is a lot of dry air out there over the Atlantic that this thing will have to battle, not to mention possible land interactions in the Caribbean.

However, if this does develop and survive, the potential is indeed there for a run at the Southeast US coast later next week. Stay tuned...

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Another nice one...

Highs were in the 80s yesterday with low humidity around the region. Today's weather will be much the same, albeit a little warmer. Humidity levels will again be low.

A weak front will bring an isolated storm chance tomorrow afternoon, and the chance of storms then increase a bit Friday.

Another, stronger front will then approach and move through around Monday of next week. Look for some showers and storms in association with that, then another push of some cooler air by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Tropics...

Of most interest to me in the tropics are a series of tropical waves well out into the Atlantic. While there is not anything terribly impressive at the moment, most computer model guidance insists that a system will develop from this region and be somewhere close to the eastern Caribbean Sea 4 or 5 days from now. I show you some of the model output in today's video, docked above.

If a system can develop, it appears the window of opportunity will be open for a potential run at the Southeast coast late next week. So, we need to watch it. However, at the moment, like I said...not even a well-defined area of interest.

See the video above for lots of graphics to go along with this....

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