Milder weather for a couple of days....unsettled next week

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. A nice weekend ahead, and I spend a good bit of time discussing the possibilities next week.

25 years ago.....the Challenger disaster. Those videos and images still send a chill up my spine. Even during childhood, I have had a love for all things weather, space, and aviation. I was very interested in the space program, and I kept up with every shuttle mission. I remember my mom and I watching coverage of the disaster in our kitchen....totally shook my young little world. For whatever reason, that was an event that deeply impacted me.....took me a long time to get over.

Weather played a role in the disaster....if you are interested in it, there are plenty of things on the web to read to see what role it might have played.

On to the weather...clouds this morning.....even a flurry or two can't be ruled out....as we catch the tail end of a clipper. Behind the system, we should see a lot of afternoon sun with highs in the low to mid 50s.

A great weather day is on tap for tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 50s and lots of sun. I still think a couple of lucky spots might hit 60.

Clouds roll in Sunday, and highs will likely be a few degrees cooler.

Next week...

Lots of moving pieces impacting next week's weather. It appears a pretty strong cold air damming set up will unfold from later Monday through Tuesday. At the same time, some weak disturbances will ripple through....so some light precip is possible Monday and Tuesday.

The core of the main system will likely move through around Wednesday. It looks, as of now, as it the main surface low will head up near or maybe even west of the mountains, so the wedge should scour out with time. I am thinking we should end up with mostly rain Wednesday, but we will have to see exactly how the cold air damming sets up.

West of the mountains....you always have to keep a watch of that shallow arctic air. This is the real deal in terms of cold air moving into the Plains early next week, and as I discussed previously, that cold air will bleed southward with time, getting increasingly shallow as it does. So somewhere in there, you have to watch for ice potential....but where or when is still a mystery.

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Sunshine returns...

Take a look at today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Lots to talk about.....some milder weather through the weekend, then I spend a lot of time on our system next week. Plus, a peek deeper into February....

What an impressive storm system the most recent one turned in to! We had anything from lightning and thunder to rain, sleet, and snow across our region, but the heavy, wet snow really got cranking from the mountains up through the Virginias into southern New England. Thundersleet and thundersnow hit right before the evening commute in D.C., and the result was a disastrous go of it.

Many spots from DC up through SE PA, MD, CT, RI, into New York City and MA picked up over 15" of snow. And this was heavy, wet, caking snow....over 500,000 power outages at one point!

Around here, the weather will be pretty docile the next few days, and we will actually squeeze in a little period of milder temps tomorrow through the weekend. Highs Saturday will surge well up into the 50s with lots of sun.

Next week...

As of the morning model runs, the Euro actually bowed to the more suppressed solutions on some of the other modeling with the track of the system next week. Taken verbatim, the Euro, GFS, and Canadian all show some wintry precip to some degree across portions of the region.

I am not sold as of yet. However, will say that another blast of true arctic air looks to plunge into the nation's midsection early in the week, and that arctic air will bleed southward and will get increasingly shallow as it moves.

As several pieces of energy eject from the western US, there are lots of possibilities on the table for how things might work out.....stay tuned. The latest Euro had a much higher-amplitude ridge near the west coast, and that caused our system to take a more southerly track with its 0z run. We will see how future runs unfold.

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Upper air low moving through...

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. I talk about our current system, where the snow will occur, and where we go from here....

Running way behind this morning, but no major changes to the overall ideas. You can see my map below. I think some wet snowflakes are possible really anywhere across the Piedmont, with the best chance from I-40 and points north.

I do still think some slushy accumulations could occur in the northern foothills and Virginia border counties as we head through this afternoon, and I think parts of the mountains will get a really good thumping out of this. Many mountain spots had already kicked over to snow as of 9am, and they were still in the southerly flow part of the system!

As the colder air aloft moves in, that is when the potential for snow will spread in. I also enjoyed seeing a few storms around this morning! Great stuff....

Below is my accumulation map...no overly significant changes from yesterday. You can see the strip of really significant accumulations will run from the mountains up into the Virginias and southern New England.

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