Saturday morning...

Well, the GFS continues to struggle, but the is nearly unanimous agreement amongst the other major models that a low will develop and move from the northern Gulf of Mexico and the strengthen as it moves up close to the Carolina coast. There are some differences in intensity and exact placement of the low, as you would anticipate a few days out, but really, if you discount the GFS, the agreement is pretty good.

The models that had taken a more inland track for the low yesterday, such as the Canadian and UKMET, have made a shift east to a track right near the coast. The Euro track on its 0z run is very close to, maybe slightly east, of its tracks the previous couple of runs.

In terms of ensembles, the Euro ensemble mean is pretty close to the operational track. The Canadian ensemble mean is a little east of the operational.

Here is the point where I will, as in previous systems, caution you not to pay tons of attention to QPF (precip) amounts. Suffice to say the 0z Euro is showing a major winter storm from northern Alabama and Tennessee east into northern Georgia, the Upstate of South Carolina, western North Carolina near and points north and west of I-85, western Virginia, and up into interios New England. The Canadian result is much the same.

The reason the GFS is different than the other modeling all has to so with the piece of upper level energy diving into the Lower 48 from Canada by later tomorrow. It brings the energy into the country around eastern Montana into the Dakotas, while the Euro is a decent bit west of that. The result is a stronger, deeper system on the other models compared to the GFS.

I will note that the Euro is farther east with this energy entering from Canada that it was on its 12z run yesterday. Don't know if that is a trend or the modeling just simply adjusting to the correct idea. That is the key to watch for this system.

So, no changes from me. The players are still on the field for a potential significant winter storm for parts of the Southeast. And for the Carolinas, I would still favor areas near and north and west of I-85.

Now is still not the time for towel throwing or celebrations. This piece of energy is coming in from a very data sparse area, so some adjustments are likely on the modeling. So, this could trend into a much weaker, less significant system, or it could remain a pretty powerful system. The devil is in the details, and those details will remain fuzzy for a little while longer.

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Friday evening...

Not a whole lot to add to the thoughts I put out there this morning. Since the 6z run today, the GFS has lost tis way it seems. It seems to be digging the upper level energy in way too far east, resulting in a slower-to-strengthen system that most other modeling. So, I would not pay a lot of attention to the 12z and 18z GFS as of now.

I would still lean the way of something similar to the Euro. It has been the superior model this cold weather season, and it also has the general support of most other modeling in terms of a much more powerful system than the GFS is indicating.

Lots of variables are still up in the air, so again, it is way too early to count your snowflakes or raindrops before they fall.

Just wanted to throw out there that the potential for a big-ticket item for parts of the region is in play...and I would still lean toward the areas from roughly I-85 on north and west.

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Arcitc air back in place....potential big system next week....

Take a look at today's video...I step you through some of the modeling and give you some thoughts on what could be a major eastern US storm system next week....



Colder air has again arrived....and we will be generally quiet and chilly all weekend.

I will skip right ahead to the system next week. Most of the models have converged on a solution that consolidates the upper level energy into a powerful upper level low that develops roughly over the Ozarks and winds up overhead in the Carolinas. This results in a phasing, rapidly deepening low pressure that tracks from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to near or just inland of the Carolina coast and finally up to the New England states.

Now, I will caution here that, like some of our previous systems, we are talking about the precise interactions of upper level features in this fairly chaotic pattern, and some changes are quite likely.

But as it stands now, I would lean toward an idea something similar to what the GFS and Euro modeling is showing. What precip types any individual location would receive would depend entirely on the track and intensity of the surface low. For many Piedmont areas, this could be a snow to rain then back to snow scenario. But these details are really not even worth getting in to at this point.

So we will see what happens. If the energy aloft stays consolidated, then a major system is quite possible. If the system deepens too soon, many in our region could get a driving rain storm. If it deepens and tracks just right, it could be a biggie for somebody in the region.

But please hear this...the solutions that the Euro and GFS have shown this morning are rare events and very difficult to come by. So, I would not be surprised at all to see this intense solution not verify.

Like I said yesterday, I will likely not have any real confidence until a couple more days pass. Lots of players on the field here. As I said in the comment section, now is not the time for celebrations or pity parties. Lots will likely change in coming days.

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