Milder for the weekend...next system on the horizon...

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. I talk about the next week's worth of weather, and why the GFS is likely wrong next week.




What a frigid start to our Friday. Most Piedmont spots were in the teens, and many mountains spots were in the single digits. In fact, several spots in north Alabama were in the single digits. Brutal!

Temps will moderate over the coming weekend with Piedmont highs in the 40s....maybe even around 50 in some spots Sunday.

System next week...

In today's video, I showed you why I thought the 0z run of the GFS was way wrong with its handling of things next week. The 6z has stepped in the direction of the Euro and Canadian with much more emphasis on the coastal system, and a colder CAD scenario.

The bottom line here is that at least a brief period of wintry precip is possible in the favored CAD areas, especially the foothills. It seems to be that the quicker precip gets into the region, the higher the chances will be for any wintry precip.

The Euro quickly changes almost everybody over to rain as it blasts the low up the coastal plain. At this point, it doesn't look like a huge problem with wintry precip, but often times the trend is colder in CAD scenarios, so we will see.

And, don't look now, but there are signs of another system around 9-10 days from now.

The basic idea is the same general pattern looks to continue for the foreseeable future.

Read more...

Still in the deep freeze...

Here is today's edition of the video. I take a look at what's ahead as we go through the remainder of January.



Check out this shot from Charlie's Beech cam up in Beech Mountain, NC. Looks like something from the arctic tundra...

Cold air remains in place for the next couple of days. Piedmont highs will be in the 30s today with upper 30s to around 40 tomorrow. Tonight should be the coldest night of this cold blast for most....lots of teens in the Piedmont.

Milder conditions will return for the weekend with 40s for highs Saturday and Sunday...maybe even a few folks clipping 50 Sunday.

Our next system will roll in by later Monday into Tuesday. I think the GFS is likely lost once again (losing the southern stream feature), and a solution more similar to the Euro and Canadian is the way to go. If that is the case, there will likely be some fairly healthy cold air damming as the system arrives (even though the parent NE high is not particularly strong), so I suppose at least a brief bit of wintry precip is possible in the favored CAD areas as the precip initially moves in.

But aside from the higher elevations, I am still leaning toward a mainly liquid system. But we will keep an eye on the CAD.

Overall, most indicators continue to point toward more cold air as January unfolds. I see no sign of any prolonged above average temps anytime soon.

Read more...

Arctic air in place...

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Give it a look. I take a look at the good, bad, and ugly with my ideas for the last winter storm. I always want to show what went right and what went wrong with the forecast and see what we can learn from it. I also look at another big snow event in the mountains and the New England states, plus we look at the pattern ahead as we get deeper into January.



Please see the video for a run-down of the good and bad with my forecasts leading up to our latest winter storm. Many of the overall ideas were good....snow, ending as a period of freezing rain with a glazing of ice on top of the snow. The heavier totals, as forecast, were from the southern Piedmont into the Upstate of SC and north Georgia, with amounts tapering off the farther north and east you went. The Triad did eventually get into the 1-2" category for snow accums, while the northern foothills eventually eclipsed 2" in most areas. The Triangle got very little snow, but I always had verbalized the Triangle as being right on the line for precip types. I was way underdone on snow totals in the Sandhills over to the southeast coast of NC....they did quite well! And certainly the Triad verified on the lower end of or below the ranges I listed.

As I mentioned in the video, the modeling that ramped up the QPF to over 1" in the southern Piedmont wound up being way overdone. Looks like CLT wound up with about 0.5" liquid equivalent....around 0.75" for GSP and around 0.25" for GSO.

So, in future systems, I will be skeptical when I see the NAM or the hi-res WRF rapidly ramp up QPF within 24 hours of an event.

Going forward....

Another huge upslope event for the NC mountains continues today. Some areas will likely wind up exceeding a foot of new snow once again. What a winter the mountains are having!

And our low pressure has bombed into a huge winter storm for the Northeast. Some places in New England will again exceed two feet!

We stay in the deep freeze through the end of the work week with 30s for Piedmont highs and some teens for lows. We should see lots of sun though, so the roads that are not shaded should really improve.

Next system....

I am watching the next system...probably late Monday into Tuesday. There is a pronounced cold air damming signature with that one, so I guess I can't rule out a little wintry precip in the favored CAD areas at onset. But at the moment, this still looks like a mostly liquid event for the lower elevations.

Read more...