Merry Christmas

Posting this just after midnight on Christmas morning.....WAY past my bedtime! But I wanted to put out a few quick thoughts.

The modeling has, as a whole, gotten quicker with the phasing of the two pieces of energy I have been discussing here all week. This is resulting in a stronger system with heavier precip thrown back into much of the region.

I have not had nearly the time to deeply analyze things as I would normally have, but there general idea here is for precip to spread in from west to east as the day unfolds. Initially in some spots, it could be a rain and snow mix, but snow will take over in time.

It now looks like much of the region....mountains, foothills, Piedmont over to I-95 will see at least a good period of moderate snow later Christmas into the evening hours with some heavy snow possible at times.

As the coastal low really begins to crank overnight into Sunday morning, some good snow rates are possible, especially in the eastern half of the Carolinas. And I still think this will at least end as some snow for the coast.

I am not going to draw up a map, but I would just put out a general 2-5" snow for much of the region (Carolinas). I know that is a broad range, but this is a changeable situation, instead of trying to get overly cute with it, I will go with that for now. Some areas will certainly be nearer the 2, but some could definitely be near (or possibly exceeding) the 5, especially in the deformation band as the coastal low cranks. In fact, odds seem to be that there will wind up being a strip of 4-8" somewhere.

We will see if any further westward trending commences. If so, that would certainly aid further in the Piedmont snow totals.

I will be spending time with my family as Christmas unfolds, so you probably won't hear much from me until late Saturday night or Sunday morning. Everyone enjoy the idea of waking up on a Christmas morning with the opportunity for some snow. For snow fans, I hope it works out for you. Tricky, tricky system, but the potential is there.

Merry Christmas, and God bless....

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Christmas Eve...

First of all, I thank all of you for stopping by, reading, and watching the videos. It is incredibly humbling, and I appreciate you deeply.

I want to wish you and yours the warmest and merriest of Christmases. Take some time, enjoy family and friends, and reflect on all of our blessings.

In terms of our Christmas storm system, this one has been mentally exhausting. It is always fun to track these possibilities, but this one has been an especially difficult challenge. And still is frankly.

Most of the modeling is indicating some degree of phasing between the disturbances, but it is too late to really give a good snow to the western Carolinas (mountains will get their typical upslope though to help).

As it stands now, it looks like a band of mainly very light snow or flurries (maybe even sprinkles in a few spots the farther south you go) will try to move in as Christmas Day. unfolds. This would likely be in the 'token' or 'novelty' category.

As more of the upper level dynamics get involved by late Saturday afternoon and evening, there could possibly be a brief period of some moderate snow in parts of the region...maybe a near or east of I-85 over toward I-95. You will likely be able to watch the low pressure strengthening as it lifts up the coast later Saturday night, and to the northwest of that low, there will likely be a band of fairly decent snow for a while somewhere in the eastern half of the Carolinas. I still think even the coast, especially NC around the OBX, could end as a period of snow Sunday.

Elsewhere, I suppose anybody is fair game to pick up some snow showers Sunday with tremendous upper level dynamics overhead. I guess it is always possible if you happen to find yourself under a good enough snow shower to get the ground whitened for a bit.

Another quick disclaimer here...the quicker the system tries to phase, the farther west the area of steadier snow could make it Saturday evening through Sunday morning. But at the moment, most indications seem to be it will not happen in enough time to push that back into areas north and west of I-85.

So that's how it looks now. I will be out and about much of today, but I be checking in and take a look at things before tonight. If time allows, or if something overly interesting pops up, I will try to post an update.

Again, I thank you so much for stopping by. Merry Christmas, and God bless....

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Details still up in the air....

Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Give it a look...



First off, I was a little surprised to see the modeling scatter so much with the 0z runs today. With the 12z and 18z runs yesterday, there seemed to be a lot of consolidating of the array of solutions. However, with the 0z runs, the models really diverged pretty widely in how each handled the interaction of our southern stream and northern stream disturbances. Even the European, which had been rock-solid consistent, differed somewhat from its previous runs.

This is the issue I have been laying out here on the blog for you all week. We are dealing with timing the interaction of two separate pieces of energy....one from the northern Plains....the other from the Pacific (now in Arizona this morning).

In terms of the modeling specifics, I don't know that any of the models really did a good job of capturing the strength of the AZ disturbance with the 0z cycle. Hopefully the AZ disturbance will be better sampled in the 12z cycle later today.

At the moment, I am completely discounting the NAM. It has essentially had 3 different looks its last 3 runs, so it is all over the place.

I am also largely discounting the 0z Canadian. It appears to weaken the AZ disturbance far too much as it enters the Plains states early tomorrow.

I have spent a ton of time comparing the most recent (0z) run of the Euro to its previous 12z run. There are really pretty similar overall. The one big difference is that the disturbance moving in from the north is a little less consolidated and strung out toward the Ohio Valley. The system still phases, but about 6-12 hours later than the previous runs. So, you still get a rapidly deepening low riding up the coast, but just later in the track than its previous runs. Therefore, the heaviest snow is all east of I-85.

As I have stated, the devil is in the details. If the northern branch feature is weaker or more stung out, this will not phase in time for a big snowstorm in the southeast.

Here is the general idea for this morning...

Snow still looks like a good bet around much of the region Christmas Day into Saturday night. I still like the chances of accumulating snow in a good number of spots. For the time being, I think the idea of the 12"+ snow dumps that had been indicated on some modeling seems even less likely now. That was always a long-shot. While it is still within the realm of possibility, odds seem to be favoring any potential for that shifting up toward New England if at all.

But, the general idea of some snow spreading into the region Christmas Day into Christmas night still seems good. At the moment, I envision a scenario where mainly light snow pulls in during the day Saturday, and then an area of moderate snow develops in from the southwest as the coastal low gets going. Where that moderate snow spread in will receive the highest snow totals.

Like there almost always is, there will be a strip of heavier snow totals, but pinpointing that location right now is impossible. Initial impression might be somewhere near or just east of I-85 to a little east of I-95, but again, that is VERY, VERY preliminary and certainly subject to change.

Like I said earlier, I think the 12z runs will begin to clear the picture a bit. Let's see what they hold....

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