Chillier air has arrived

Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. In the post below this one is my winter forecast and video.



A much cooler airmass has arrived across our region. Despite a sunny sky, highs today will warm into the low to at most mid 60s.

Many locations will have their coldest night thus far this season tonight. Under a clear sky, temps will drop off into the 30s by Saturday morning, and in many Piedmont locations, temps will likely be cold enough for frost. Some of the traditionally colder spots might even dip into the lower 30s.

A delightful October weekend is on tap. Look for sunshine with 60s for highs tomorrow and lower 70s for Halloween. No problems either evening for the trick-or-treaters.

Next week....

Next week will be a cool week overall. At some point, likely Tuesday through Thursday, our next system will roll in. Lots of uncertainty with the details of that one, but I will mention some shower chances those days, and we might wind up with a few days with highs in the 50s.

Tropics...

Tropical Storm Shary will scrape near Bermuda today as a minumal tropical storm....then head out to sea.

There is a sizable tropical wave nearing the eastern Caribbean. We will watch that one for development.

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2010-2011 Winter Forecast

**Issued October 28, 2010**



Above is the video to accompany the winter forecast. Please see it for all of the graphical information. I picture is worth a thousand words.

For those of you that are new to my winter outlooks, my goal each year is to put out my forecast prior to Halloween. The temperature and precip forecasts relative to average are based on December, January, and February, and any snowfall ideas are first flake to last flake, whatever month they occur in.

Last year's winter forecast worked out very, very nicely. I still have all of those maps saved, and the video is still on my youtube channel for those interested. Overall, it went about as well as a seasonal forecast can go.

This time around, my confidence is somewhat lower. One of the dominant weather players for this winter is a strong La Nina. The La Nina is a strong one, and that means there is a relatively small sample size of analog years with similar La Nina values. Due to the low number of analog years, this can sometimes lead you down the wrong path.

Another key factor is how the Atlantic behaves. For much of the year, the NAO and the AO have been on the negative side of things, or at most neutral. One recent exception is a positive spike in those values in early October. How these values unfold will play a major role this winter.

At this point, I am going with the idea that a neutral to negative NAO/AO combination will be with us, at least through the first half of winter.

So, with all of that said, here we go...

The analog years I have gone with are the winters of 55/56, 73/74, 75/76, 88/89, 98/99, 99/00. I have placed more weight in the analogs from the 50s and 70s....reason being a much closer match with the current solar cycle than the other years mentioned as well as a better overall match with the cycle of the PDO, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

So, my overall forecast for the winter.


Please see the maps at the bottom for the individual month breakdowns of the analog years for temps and precip.

For the Carolinas: Temperatures: Above average Precipitation: Average to a bit below

That is very vague, so let's get a little more specific. I anticipate, relative to averages, December to be our coldest winter month. For the Southeast, I will go with average December temps. From there, January and February are look above average for the Southeast's temps.

For precip, each of the months look to be fairly close to average. The closer you get to the Gulf coast, the drier it looks overall.

Snowfall forecasts are always tricky. It only takes one quite healthy snow event to reach averages around much of our non-mountain areas. I do think we will have our chances this winter, however, unlike last winter where we had one potential event right after another, they will be fewer in number. If we can cash in on one or two of these potential events, then the region will do OK for snow. If not, then not so much.

I think December could be our best opportunity for winter events, with the potential dwindling a bit as the winter unfolds. However, even in a sea of above average temperatures, it only takes one well-placed upper level low to dump snow. So, back away from the ledge, snow fans. There is always hope.

So again, to recap, the coldest winter temperatures overall look to be during the first half of winter with above average temps taking over as we get deeper into winter. However, the mid-Atlantic to the Tennessee Valley could wind up being a battle ground for airmasses, so there will be some temps swings. And with colder air sitting fairly close by, that could lend itself to some ice or wintry mix events.

Again, please see the video...I get into lots of graphics with more detailed information in there.


December
Temps:

Precip:


January
Temps:

Precip:


February
Temps:

Precip:

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Storm system has exited....

After a couple of days of unsettled weather featuring rain, storms, severe weather, flooding, and the kitchen sink....much quieter weather is arriving as our storm system continues to pull away.

Today will be dry with a drier airmass pushing in from the northwest. However, it will still be fairly warm this afternoon with lots of Piedmont locations making it up into the lower 80s.

Chillier air will begin settling in tonight with lows in the 40s under a clear sky. You will definitely notice the difference tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 60s in spite of a sunny sky.

Lows Saturday morning will be well down into the 30s, and I still think some Piedmont spots will see a frost.

Weekend....

A delightful Halloween weekend is on tap. Sunshine will abound both days with highs Saturday in the 60s and highs Sunday toward the lower 70s. Whether the kids are trick-or-treating Saturday or Sunday evening, the weather will be great both days with evening temps falling into the 50s.

Next week....

Another storm system will impact our region Tuesday and Wednesday next week. However, instead of storms and severe weather, this system looks to bring us some pretty chilly rain. Temps Wednesday could very well be in the 50s all day.

Winter Forecast....

I am releasing my winter forecast today. I will have it and its accompanying video posted later this morning.

Here is some viewer video of a tornado in Person county yesterday...

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