Hello, Alex....

TD 1 strengthened to tropical storm intensity overnight....thus, we have Alex. Alex continues to organize, but will move into the Yucatan Peninsula later tonight.

Alex will then emerge into the Gulf of Mexico around early Monday morning. At that point, it appears conditions would likely be supportive of strengthening again.

Alex will make another landfall down the line next week, but where is obviously a tough question. At this point, I am leaning toward south Texas or northern Mexico, but there is some chance, especially the stronger the system is, that it heads much farther north in the Gulf.

If you have interests from the central Gulf coast all of the way down through Mexico, you need to closely monitor Alex's progress.

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TD 1 is born...

The recon plane found a well-defined surface circulation when investigating the disturbance in the Caribbean this afternoon....thus TD 1 is born. The seems to be getting better organized as well.

I have tons of good information for you available right on the 'Tropical Weather' section of my site, linked on the left.

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Remaining hot this weekend....relief on the way...

A weak frontal boundary has stalled out around the region, but we will not see a significant cool down through the weekend. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s with mid to even upper 90s through the weekend. It will remain quite muggy as well.

Some afternoon storms will be possible, especially today and tomorrow, with the greater chances for showers and storms will be the farther south you head around the region. Like we have been seeing the past several days, any storms that do fire could produce damaging winds and frequent lightning.

A major pattern change is on the way next week. A strong cold front will move through Monday into Tuesday and bring good shower and storm chances. Behind that front, much cooler, drier air will arrive. In fact, the airmass looks downright delightful Wednesday through the end of the week with some low to mid 80s for highs, lower 60s for lows, and much, much less humidity.

Tropics...

Our disturbance in the Caribbean Sea continues to get better organized, and there is a decent chance this becomes a tropical depression before interacting with the Yucatan Peninsula. From there, the system will likely head toward the northern or western Gulf coast. Stay tuned....

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