Robert's post...

Here is Robert's blog post. Especially note the last section where Robert previewed the upcoming severe weather season....

With Tuesday's system long gone expect the Piedmont to remain quiet with gradual warming through the entire weekend. Temperatures today will reach into the lower 50s, with breezy conditions ending today. The weekend should be warmer with temps nearing 60, Saturday through Monday.

Tuesday into Wednesday should be our next system. As of right now all signs point towards rain. Models are all showing rain currently with this track and climatology just doesn't favor another winter storm. However, like always we will keep an eye on it with every new model run.

Since things are relatively quiet I have begun looking at the upcoming spring severe weather season for NC. Technically the deep South is already in the beginning of sever weather season going by climatology. In the Past NC has seen many severe events this early in the season. Interesting to note that the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman Oklahoma, the agency that issues tornado and severe T-storm watches for the entire US, reported not a single tornado for the US in the month of February. This is the first time in the 60 years that they have been keeping record. Could this be an indicator of the upcoming season? Most likely not. With an EL NINO signature quickly fading to a normal global pattern expect a storm season to still develop on Schedule or a little later. For a preliminary forecast I will call for an average amount of storm days and severe watches for the area, with a few strong events while the southern jet is still affecting the Southeast. Just a fun guess so we will see how it pans out.

Robert Elvington

robert.elvington@gmail.com

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Tranquil weather for a little while...

A quiet stretch of weather is unfolding across much of the eastern US. For our region, that will translate into a lot of sunshine and each day getting a little milder then the previous day.

Today will still be a bit chilly and breezy with highs in the upper 40s to near 50.

Tomorrow we will see highs close to 50, then mid to maybe upper 50s Saturday, maybe low 60s Sunday, and highs up into the 60s Monday.

Our next storm system will roll through Tuesday into Wednesday. There is not a lot of model agreement on the track of this system, but for the Carolinas southward, I think odds are this winds up being a rain producer.

I get the idea that around mid-month or so, we will head back into a colder pattern for a while.

Under the knife.... I am having arthroscopic knee surgery in the morning, so I will not be in the weather office for several days. I will try to make a couple of blog and/or twitter posts at times, but no new videos until at least the middle of next week. I appreciate your patience!

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Wednesday.....

Please see today's video for a detailed wrap-up of the snow event yesterday and last night. On a regional scale, the accumulation forecast I put out worked out pretty well. I had gone with 2-4" for the Triad area, and in most spots, that verified pretty nicely. It looks like the forecast will work out well for much of the RDU area over into northeastern NC and back into the foothills, mountains, and northern Georgia as well.

I mentioned a strip of heavier totals would likely occur, and it did....from the mountains into the foothills and Virginia border counties in the Triad viewing area.

However, the accumulation forecast busted badly from western sections of Charlotte through Gaston and Cleveland counties and down into the Upstate. Plenty of snow fell, but it really struggled to accumulate in this area.

Why? In the Triad, the temp dropped to 33 while the snow was occurring in many spots, and that was good enough to accumulate. For Charlotte back through Gastonia, Shelby, and GSP, the temp dropped to around 34 in many of those places, and accumulations were tough to come by. It did not snow any harder in the Triad than it did in the southern Piedmont. So, the best I can figure is that with the March sun angle, 34 degrees and snow has a tough time accumulating, while 33 degrees and snow accumulated much more easily. At least that is how it worked this time around.

An interesting system, and one I have been tracking with you for well over a week now. Time to put this one to bed and move ahead....

Blustery and cold conditions today with highs in the 40s. Some residual slick spots this morning, especially in the areas that had heavier snow totals.

Each day will get a little milder than the previous one. Tomorrow highs will be in the upper 40s to near 50....by Saturday mid to upper 50s, and maybe some lower 60s by Monday.

We will stay dry through the weekend, and the weekend will be terrific for any outdoor plans you might have.

The next chance of rain arrives Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

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