10pm update...

Storms fired up Alabama and Tennessee and quickly grew severe. However, there has been a weakening trend in the storms on the southern end of that line over the past hour or so.

In the southern Piedmont, fog has settled in in many spots. Strange weather day. This after a breezy period with a mostly clear sky right at sunset.

I still can't rule out a few strong to severe storms for the Charlotte and Triad zones tonight. However, I am having a hard time seeing how the atmosphere will get terribly unstable, so I don't expect a big severe weather event at this point.

If you are heading to bed, leave the NOAA weather radios on just to be on the safe side.

Putting the final touches on the Sunday School lesson...it is my turn to teach in the morning. And still no sign of my wife going into labor as of this evening....due date is tomorrow.

Enjoy the night and Sunday...

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3pm update...

Rain and embedded storms will continue to move through the Carolinas over the next few house. The MCV can clearly be seen on radar imagery at the SC-GA border region at 2:40pm.

The potential is there some some pretty good storms this afternoon in the eastern sections of NC...mainly east of Charlotte up to RDU and points east.

For the immediate Charlotte and Triad zones, our severe weather chance will hinge on whether or not any destabilization can occur later this afternoon into this evening. Any peeks of sun that might work in from the west would certainly add to that, and cooler temps aloft moving in this evening will also aid in destabilization.

The 12z GFS still shoots the CAPE at Charlotte up to 1519 j/jg at 1am. Looks like the more unstable air back in N Georgia that develops this afternoon tries to move in late this evening.

The SPC will soon put out a tornado watch for northern Alabama into Tennessee. Any storms that fire in that region could move into the western Carolinas this evening.

The potential for a few tornadoes could be maximized right along the boundary that is currently draped through central NC.

So, the severe weather potential for the I-85 corridor? Uncertain at this point. The chances certainly look higher for places along I-95 and points eastward.

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Thoughts on severe potential today and tonight...

Interesting and complex forecast today and tonight.

We have a frontal boundary that is currently draped from roughly Charlotte to RDU at 9am. That front should very slowly move northward through this evening. Temps are running in the low to mid 50s in the Triad to close to 60 in the Charlotte area to the mid 60s around RDU.

There is a big batch of rain and storms in Georgia, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle that is lifting northeastward. A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is evident near the Alabama-Georgia line northeast of Troy. This is a similar feature to the one that developed yesterday and spawned tornadoes in eastern NC.

This batch of rain and embedded thunderstorms will push into the state later this morning and early this afternoon. The airmass is fairly stable in the Triad and Charlotte zones, but it gets a bit more unstable the farther east you go in the state. So as this first wave of activity moves through, I think the severe weather threat for the Charlotte and Triad zones is relatively low. From RDU and point eastward, you will again have to be on the lookout for some severe weather in the slightly more unstable air.

After that wave pushes through, the GFS really surges instibility into the western and central Piedmont this evening, especially in the 7pm to midnight timeframe. In fact, the severe weather indicies are pretty impressive during that time frame on the 6z GFS for CLT and the Triad. However, the NAM is not as unstable.

For the Charlotte and Triad zones, it appears to me the best opportunity for severe weather will run from roughly 5pm this evening into the predawn hours Sunday morning. It looks like a pretty mean line of storms could form and race through the area this evening into tonight. Damaging winds would likely be the biggest threat, but isolated tornadoes and large hail would also be possible if the airmass destatilizes enough. The chance of severe weather before this evening in CLT and GSO is not zero, but I think the greatest chances will be this evening.

Some locally heavy rain amounts are also possible, and some flash flooding issues could crop up.

Also, the ground is already saturated in many spots. With those wet ground conditions, it will be easier than normal for trees to topple. So, please don't take severe thunderstorm warnings lightly today and tonight.

Everyone in the state needs to have a reliable way of hearing watches and warnings if and when they are issued. The best way is a NOAA weather radio. And of course, keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina on television....we will keep you completely up to date and will be live on the air as often and as long as necessary.

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