Ahhh....

I greatly appreciate everyone checking in to the blog here. Thanks so much for stopping by!

This is the point in every winter weather forecast I do that all of the doubts and second guessing starts taking place in my head. I keep seeing things that could potentially go wrong with the forecast. However, those that have been following me on the blog for any length of time know I am not a flip-flopper. Once I come up with a forecast idea, I will ride that idea until it is obvious I must change.

Don't get me wrong, there is not any real reason to want to change the ideas I have put out there in terms of accumulations. It is just as time goes on, I continue to imagine this scenario and that scenario that could put the forecast down the tubes.

The only thing a little concerning to me is that some modeling is really showing a lull in the action for a while tomorrow evening after the profile gets cold enough for all snow. But more precip fills back in later, and it is probably that next batch that will determine most of our snow totals.

But, I will not change anything this evening at all. Anyone in the Piedmont could see 3-7" of snow. And I do feel there will be a strip of heavier totals where up to 6-10" could fall. I still feel the most likely location for that strip is from the Charlotte metro area up to around the Triad.

All of this is a long-winded way to say I am not going to make any changes to my accumulation ideas. I will keep looking at the data tonight, and if any changes need to be made, they will be made tomorrow.

We are really now to the point of nowcasting. It is time to put most of the model charts away (with the exception of the skilled short range models) and watch the weather.....satellite, radar, observations, etc.

So far, the system is over-performing back in Arkansas and Tennessee. We will see if that has any implications downstream.

I am going to try and spend a couple of hours away from the computer here this evening....but if I see anything earth-shattering, I will share it late this evening.

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Accumulation Ideas...

All right, I have reviewed all of the 12z data that is in-house, and I have made my initial forecast on snow accumulations with our upcoming snow event. I have cut a special Saturday edition of the Carolina Weather Video, and it is posted above. Please give it a look.

Below this is my accumulation outline. The area inside the blue line, I am going with a general 3-7" snow with isolated higher or lower amounts. The area inside the white line, including portions of the Charlotte metro and the Triad, is my 6-10" area. Isolated lollipops inside that area could possible see over a foot.

Now, as I stated on the video, for some reason, one of the computer models loses some of the moisture aloft required for snow formation tomorrow evening. I don't think that is correct, but if it is, it would greatly reduce these amounts.

Also, the ground is quite warm, but assuming the snow gets heavy like it should in the deformation zone, that should not be a problem.

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Saturday...

All right folks....I will have lots of details later on, and I will lay down some accumulation ideas, for better or worse, after I review most of the 12z data. I will also try to cut a video today if time allows. Check back a little later on!

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