Saturday evening thoughts...

First things first, the radar is impressive back over the southern Plains this evening. I think we stand a good chance of seeing some light rain tomorrow, and I still say a few sleet pellets or snow flurries could mix in in the Piedmont....doesn't look like any big deal though.

The computer models continue to print out some varying scenarios with our Wednesday night-Thursday potential system. Almost all modeling in indicating precip moving in by Thursday here in the Carolinas, but by far the best model for snow-lovers is the GFS. For 3 runs in a row now it has dumped heavy snow into the western Carolinas Thursday.

It is simply too early to know how this one will pan out. I feel like the GFS may possibly be indicating too strong a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico, which then lifts up the Carolina coast. But with that said, I do like the chances of at least overrunning precipitation developing Thursday. And present indications continue to be that some wintry weather could very well be involved in the western Carolinas.

This could all change, but that is my thinking as of now.

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Saturday morning...

Model confusion continues in the outlook for next week.

In short, the 0z GFS suppressed our Wednesday-Thursday system too far south for us to see any significant precip. However, on the very next run, the 6z dumps heavy snow in western North Carolina Thursday.

For the storm next weekend, the 0z developed a monster low pressure area that brought us rain with some wrap-around snow potential behind the system. The system has essentially vanished from the 6z run.

On the 0z European, it is ill-defined with our mid-week system, bringing some precip in here toward the end od the work week. The 0z Canadian brings precip in here Thursday.

In short, who knows at this point? The upper level disturbance responsible for the Thursday system is entering western North America today, so I would imagine modeling will at least have some idea what is going on with the 0z runs tonight.

The 0z GFS was a bit of a kill-joy for snow lovers in the Carolinas, but the 6z obviously looked great for western N.C. But as you know.....you can't live and die by each run of each model. The bottom line is there is at least POTENTIAL for some type of wintry weather next week, and I will continue to try and hammer it out for you....

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Friday Evening...

Well, our Sunday system looks to bring us some light rain, possibly mixed with some sleet pellets or snow flakes, but it does NOT look like a big deal at all. This system just looks like it will wind up being to weak to bring anything significant.

But, keep your head up snow fans.....next week looks very interesting. Most modeling is agreeing that we will have a system move through Wednesday or Thursday. Depending on the track, that one could produce some wintry weather. The last few runs of the GFS have indicated some major winter precip for the Carolinas from that system. So it is one to watch for sure. And, the GFS even brings in another system next weekend. We shall see.

I am still working on tweaking the videos. I am having problems with the audio being distorted and skipping some. I am using Windows Media Encoder, and if anyone has any suggestions, please let me know....

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