Congrats to the Lane family on the birth of their son. Truly one of the greatest moments of life!

As for the weather, the latest information is rolling in on Ernesto. Looks like the center has re-formed under the deep convection...so the center has shifted northeast from the earlier recon fix.

Seems most models continue their gradual shift eastward.

At this point, all eventual Gulf landfall options are still open, but I am beginning to get the feeling landfall could be more likely from Louisiana eastward through Florida. Still too early though. Also, another option that is beginning to show up on the models is that Ernesto could really slow down as it approaches the Gulf coast. We will keep watching that.

Assuming Ernesto remains south of Cuba, it still appears some significant strengthening could occur later tomorrow through Monday. I still think we will likely be looking at a major Gulf hurricane.

Also, it is interesting to note the well-defined cold air damming (CAD) set-up around here on some modelling Thursday and Friday. The 12z European model is wild showing a strong CAD around here while a hurricane is making landfall on the Florida Peninsula late next week.

Looks like a busy week ahead in the weather office.

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Ernesto looking dangerous

I am becoming increasingly concerned with what I am seeing with Ernesto. The system has been battling formidable shear for a while now, and not only has it sustained itself, it has actually gotten better organized.

The shear is due to an upper level low (ULL) near Cuba and Jamaica. That ULL should weaken and move westward, away from the path of Ernesto. So, as the shear lessens over the system, it should be all systems go for some fairly rapid strengthening. Think of it like this...

Imagine you are running with a parachute attached to you. You are running and making some progress, but it is incredibly hard work to move forward. Well, now imagine you get cut free from the parachute. You are off to the races and running quite quickly....and it seems rather effort-less.

That is what can happen with Ernesto. When the shear decreases (parachute gets cut free), it could be off to the races intensity-wise. In addition, the Gulf environment looks like it will be favorable for the system, and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are very warm there. So, my thinking...

I am getting more and more concerned we will be dealing with a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday. As far as the eventual landfall, anyone is still fair game from Texas to Florida. So, anyone with interesting along the Gulf coast need to closely monitor Ernesto.

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Ernesto and Tara...

Sounds like some sort of movie, doesn't it?

Looks like TD 5 will be classified as a tropical storm with the NHC's 5pm advisory. However, you can clearly see on visible satellite images that the low level center is to the west of the deep convection. Looks like that shear talked about below is now affecting the system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

As long as that shear remains in place, don't look for major strengthening. In fact, the system will likely look pretty ragged for much of the weekend. However, once Ernesto gets to the western Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf, things could be in place for some significant strengthening. We shall see....

And, Tara has gone into labor and is in the process of delivering their second bundle of joy. Our prayers with the Lane family for the safe delivery of the new little one....

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