12z has it too

12z GFS also develops a tropical system that it bring close to the eastern US by the first couple of days of September. Here is the surface chart for 8am Sept. 2...



Will be interesting to watch....

Will be out of town for a few days here. I will try to post from time to time if time allows.....

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Beautiful day!

Comfortable levels of humidity out there today as dewpoints have dropped into the upper 50s to lower 60s on northeasterly winds. Very nice stuff! Enjoy....

We should stay dry with relatively lower levels of humidity tomorrow and Saturday before our next cold front slowly moves across the region Sunday through Tuesday. Those days look to feature scattered showers and storms.

Tropics...
I tell you...like I mentioned yesterday, the low off of the SC coast sure looks like a tropical depression. The National Hurricane Center makes those official determinations, and they have not declared it a TD. However, it is sure close to it. It is probably semantics anyway because upper level winds are becoming increasingly hostile over the system. Due to that, significant development is unlikely.

For two runs in a row now the GFS develops a tropical system in the Atlantic and tracks it toward the US east coast during the first couple of days of September. In fact, check this out from the 6z run today...this is valid 2am September 1...


Now, this is out in la-la land for the computer models, so specifics are not to be looked at. However, I think this is indicative that by the beginning of September we will be entering a more active time in the tropics. Stay tuned...

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I Stand Corrected....

Per the NHC at 4:05pm...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THEAREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THECOASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING MAXIMUM SUSTAINEDSURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 25 MILES PER HOUR IN A FEW ISOLATEDTHUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT YET BECOME A TROPICALDEPRESSION AND ADVISORIES ARE NOT BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME ATROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFOREUPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ONTHURSDAY.

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