Throwing in the towel....

>> Saturday, February 10, 2007

Let me say this up front....there is still time for some changes, but it would take a dramatic shift in modelling over the next 24 hours to make me change my statements below. And while that is certainly possible, I don't think it is likely. So, with that said.......

I feel it is time to throw in the towel for folks in the Carolinas hoping for ice and snow Tuesday. If you are a snow fan, the trend has not been your friend today with each run of most modelling getting warmer and farther north with the system. After a little excitement with last night's 0z GFS, it has been all downhill from there today.

So, my gut feeling tells me this one is over for the Piedmont of the Carolinas if you are looking for a winter storm. While it is still possible we could see a little snow or ice on the back end of this system Tuesday night, that is even looking less likely right now.

Now, the upper level feature responsible for the storm will not get on the North American observation grid until tomorrow. Due to that, there are still a few doubts lingering in the back of my mind. However, to me, the prospects of a big winter storm in the Carolinas from this system now seem so low that I am throwing in the proverbial towel.

I will keep watching all of the new data with great interest, and honestly, I will be hoping for some sort of drastic change that will bring the region wintry weather. However, it seems very unlikely at this point....

Read more...

0z GFS

>> Friday, February 09, 2007

Tonight's 0z run of the GFS has come in with a much more significant push of cold air and cold air damming in the Carolinas for the Tuesday system. In fact, it prints out a lot of wintry precip for much of North Carolina. At first glance, this solution looks a lot like the European runs from a couple of days ago when it was printing out virtually the same solution for 5 runs in a row.

This is a big jump from the previous GFS output, so I would take it with a grain of salt. But, it certainly shows you that a lot of uncertainty remains, and like I said in the previous post, I am not taking any solution off of the table yet. Stay tuned....

Off to bed for the night.....more posts through the weekend....

Read more...

Wrapping up the week....

I tell you....that is some dry air out there. At times, I feel like I am wearing static electricity as an extra layer of clothing.

The weekend will be dry and somewhat chilly....temps still below average for this time of year.

I am still trying to get a good handle on the Monday-Tuesday storm system. As expected with a southern stream storm system at this time range, the models are continuing to really struggle with the details of this system. And, those details will probably not become more clear until later Sunday.

But, I really get the feeling it is going to be difficult for this to be a big winter weather producer for much of North Carolina. It is really looking like a case where the colder air arrives a little too late for a big winter hit around here. However, with that said, I do think there is the chance the the Piedmont sees a period of freezing rain or snow before the precip ends late Tuesday. Whether or not that will occur, and if it does occur, how long it will last are impossible question to answer right now.

But I will continue to offer up this word of caution....nothing will be even close to certain until the disturbance gets in the North American grid late in the weekend. So, I still wouldn't ignore this system at all....I really am keeping all options at least somewhat open until I get a better feeling about things....

The Thursday-Friday system is getting crushed by the northern branch on almost all modelling right now. But, I am in no way ready to write that one off yet.....how that potential system behaves will depend greatly on how the Monday-Tuesday system evolves.....

Read more...

Virga

A lot of virga on the radar in North Carolina this afternoon. While some of the radar returns look impressive, the airmass here at the ground is extremely dry. So, much of the precip you see on radar is evaporating before reaching the ground.

If anyone in North Carolina has seen some precip this afternoon, please let me know....very helpful.

Read more...

Thursday Evening Comments...

>> Thursday, February 08, 2007

Some couple of evening notes...

  • Cold tonight with lows well down into the 20s.
  • Weak system sliding to our south tomorrow. A little wintry precip possible in northern Alabama, northern Georgia, and parts of South Carolina. The precip will stay south of North Carolina....only clouds for us.
  • Weekend is dry and chilly.
Regarding our system around next Tuesday, as I told Jeff Crum earlier this afternoon...I have the towel in my hand, but I just can't bring myself to throw it in yet in terms of wintry weather potential for the Carolinas. Almost all model data is indicating only rain for the Piedmont of NC, and that is probably the most likely scenario. But, I will not completely buy into that idea yet...still too much uncertainty on the table and wiggle room. So, the potential is at least somewhat still there, and I will continue to evaulate it with time. While I have rain in my formal forecast today for Tuesday, I still have some uncertainty in my mind.

I still like the chances of a system rolling through here next Thursday. The 0z and 6z GFS brought snow to the Carolinas, the 12z and 18z have suppressed it too far to the south to bring us precip. And, the GFS continues to be gung-ho with a big system rolling through somewhere between the 18th and 20th. So, snow lovers...don't give up!

Read more...

Game Over???

Quick post here before I pick up my daughter from pre-school and head in to work....

The last 24 hours of models runs have been disasterous for snow lovers in NC. Does that mean game over for Tuesday's system?

I would say the prospects of a big winter storm in the Carolinas are a little lower than it looked 36 hours ago, but I would not throw the towel in on this one yet. The models are destined to waffle back and forth some more over the coming days...that is the nature of the beast.

So, I am not as excited about this one as I was 36 hours ago, but again....it is not time to write this one off yet. By the way, if the latest runs of the GFS are correct, Virginians will be measuring the snow in feet Tuesday!

The GFS is also picking up on a potential second system around next Thursday. Time will tell...

Also, some modelling is picking back up the idea of some precip over SC late tomorrow....this is the same system that was talked about earlier this week....

Those are the items on the table...will get a better look of things when I get in to work....

Read more...

12z European

>> Wednesday, February 07, 2007

After taking an initial look at the latest European model run, it is farther north with the track of the surface low for Tuesday than any of its previous 5 runs. Due to that fact, it prints out very little snow for NC, but it does appear to indicate ice potential for western NC.

However, like I have been saying, paying a lot of attention to details this far out is rather pointless. Remember, the two things I said in the previous post to look for in this time-frame from a storm system.....trends and overall set-up.

We can determine better when tonight's 0z Euro run comes out whether that model is indeed trending north, or it just had an inconsistent run with the new 12z. As far as overal set-up is concerned, it holds the surface high way back in Canada and never really pushes it into good CAD position during the storm. That is a big reason for the differences in the 12z run today and the previous 5 runs.

So, continue to sit back and relax while the models try to get a grasp on the situation. Today's model data certainly hasn't been good news for snow lovers in the Carolinas, but take a deep breath and relax. Lots of changes occur with potential systems in this time-frame. We could very well wind up with 35 degrees and an inch of rain from this, or it could still wind up being a big winter storm. Stay tuned...

Read more...

Wednesday Midday Post...

Back in the saddle at work today. Very nice stuff out there today with highs not far from 60 in the Charlotte region. However, I think this is the last above-average temperature day for at least the next 7-10 days....so enjoy!

The storm track will remain to our south through this weekend, so any precip from and storm systems will stay suppressed to our south through at least Sunday.

However, I continue to look at winter weather potential Tuesday. The 0z European model stayed in step with its previous 4 runs in showing a big winter storm for much of the western Carolinas. The GFS continues to waffle around from run to run, and honestly, I don't trust the GFS any farther than I can throw it at this point. Until it shows some consistency, I will not trust it very much.

Again, let me stress here what to look for in evaluating a storm system in the 5-6 day range. I always look for two things....the overall set-up being presented, and any possible trends starting to develop. In spite of the GFS's flouderings, I do not see any significant trends with the system yet. And, the synoptics (overall large-scale picture) remain virtually the same as yesterday. We still have a high pressure moving into a very favorable CAD position, there is still a lot of QPF (amount of precip) involved, and we are looking at (on most modelling) a rather favorable low pressure track for Carolians winter events.

It will be very interesting to see what today's 12z Euro model shows.

So, my opinion remains unchanged on the Tuesday system. I still think this has the potential to be a big winter storm for parts of the Carolinas. It is way to early for details, but I will keep watching for any trends closely....

Read more...

12z Tuesday Euro

>> Tuesday, February 06, 2007

12z Euro is in, and wow....still showing a major winter storm for the Carolinas next week. Clinging to the details is somewhat pointless at this time-frame, but for 4 Euro runs in a row, these general ideas have shown up...

  • Classic cold air damming during the storm...parent high remains in place.
  • Lots of QPF...in fact, over an inch of QPF for most of NC...even up to 2 inches.
  • Fairly long-duration event....24-48 hours.
Like I said, clinging to details at this point is fruitless, but taken verbatin, the 12z Euro shows a significant amount of snow followed by a crippling ice storm for the Charlotte region.

I am not saying we are going to be hit with a devastaing winter storm next week. However, I am continuing to say that we have the potential for a winter storm in the Carolinas next week, and it needs to be watched closely.

The GFS is showing somewhat of a similar set-up, but details are a bit different. But, the European model, typically a bit superior in the medium range, showing this for 4 runs in a row gets my attention.

Stay tuned....

Read more...

Winter Weather Potential Ahead?

A couple of quick comments here. Yes, I have seen the GFS occasionally spitting out some snow in the Carolinas Friday or Friday night, but I do not think that will be a concern. That solution has very little support from other modelling or the GFS's own ensembles. I think that wave probably gets suppressed to the south of us.

However, I DO think we have winter weather potential around next Tuesday. The European model, for a few runs in a row now, has shown a huge winter storm all the way up parts the East Coast. For a few runs in a row now, its solution has dumped large amounts of wintry precip in the western Carolinas. The GFS continues to waffle around with that system, but the Euro has been rock-solid with it for a few runs now.

No, I am not saying we will have a big winter storm next week. What I am saying is that potential is there, and we will need to watch it closely. I feel pretty confident that this storm will exist. The big question for us is how cold with the air be when it arrives. We shall see....

Read more...

NOAA Weather Radios

>> Sunday, February 04, 2007

Due to the tornado tragedy in Florida, I feel the need to make this post. My main point is plain and simple. Every home, business, school, and place of worship needs to have a NOAA Weather Radio.

Lots of government money is spent each and every year to put up outdoor sirens for the purpose of notifying the public of life-threatening weather danger. While those sirens are a good thing, many people mis-understand their design. Those sirens were designed for the purpose of alerting you to impending danger if you are outside....they were not designed to wake you up in your home in the middle of the night if a tornado is heading your way. I would much rather see government money go toward making sure every structure has a functioning NOAA Weather Radio than more sirens being put up.

Now, a comment was posted below the previous blog post, and it is a comment I hear fairly frequently. A complaint I often hear with NOAA Weather Radios is that people find them annoying due to the fact that they give them information that at times they don't want to know. A lot of folks still have older models of weather radios, and if that is the case, then yes, they can get frustrating at times.

However, newer weather radios are produced carrying the S.A.M.E. technology. Basically, S.A.M.E. technology allows you to select to hear warnings for only the counties you wish. For example, if you only want to hear warnings for only Union County, then that is all you would here. You can even get weather radios now that will only sound an alarm for the specific types of warnings you desire to hear as well.

So, once again, I cannot say strongly enough how much I encourage you to get a weather radio if you don't have one already. And, make sure you child's school has one as well. And, like I mentioned above, places of worship need them too...I have seen far too many weather-related church tragedies in my time as well.

While I suppose the weather radios can be annoying at times, I would say to you that I don't think any level of annoyance surpasses the need of hearing life-saving information. While all of us here at News 14 Carolina have the foremost goal of being on the air, bringing you possibly life-saving information, we cannot wake you up in the middle of the night and turn your TV on.

If the information I have looked over is correct, then unfortunately the loss of life in Florida was avoidable. Tornado warnings were issued in advance of the tornadoes arriving in the areas affected, and had folks heard the warnings at least 5-10 minutes ahead of the tornado, they could very well have made it to a place of safety. The situation down there just breaks my heart....and I felt compelled to put this post up.

Read more...

  © Blogger templates Shiny by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP