Mesoscale Discussion Issued for the Area

>> Wednesday, March 28, 2007

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0359
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...NRN AND WRN NC...FAR ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281833Z - 282030Z

STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS
MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW OVER SRN VA AHEAD OF WEAKENING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO
EXTENDING SEWD INTO NERN NC. STRONG HEATING AND RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW MDT INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT SEWD WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM SRN VA INTO NRN NC. OBSERVED AND
FORECAST WIND PROFILES INDICATE WEAK BUT VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW
BENEATH MODEST 30-40 KT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THIS TYPE OF
HODOGRAPH...MULTICELLS APPEAR LIKELY BUT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SUPERCELLS...MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN WIND AND PRODUCING THE
LARGEST HAIL...FROM 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALSO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY AS STORM
MOTIONS ACCELERATE LATER TODAY.

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